Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC 177

CorreiaUFC 177 Date: August 30, 2014 Arena: Sleep Train Arena City: Sacramento, CA UFC 177 will be live from the Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA for the second time in eight months with a 10-fight card, including a five-fight main card that will be live on Pay Per View at 10pm ET. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, these lines will be available to you at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays UFC 177 are: Lightweight bout: Tony Ferguson (-260) vs Danny Castillo (+220) Ferguson Inside the Distance (+105) 1u to win 1.05u Ferguson by Submission (+543) 1u to win 5.43u Ferguson -3.5 (-150) 1.5u to win 1u I believe Ferguson is the superior mixed martial artist in this match-up. He is more talented both on the feet and on the mat. He packs a lot more power behind his strikes and not to mention has the better chin of the two. I can see “El Cucuy” ending this fight either by T/KO or submission, and I think the Submission prop at +543 is very mispriced. I think the chances of him earning the victory with a submission are just as good as him getting a T/KO or decision, so I love that line and see a ton of value in it. Women’s Bantamweight bout: Bethe “Pitbull” Correia (-140) vs Shayna Baszler (+120) Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-180) 1.8u to win 1u Correia Inside the Distance (+412) 1u to win 4.12u Correia by Submission (+1845) 1u to win 18.45u “Pitbull” is the better conditioned athlete of the two and I think that will play the difference in this match-up, as Baszler begins to fade in the second and/or third round of action. When that happens, I think Correia will take full advantage and earn a stoppage; I have a feeling there is a very good chance she may finish this fight with a choke, and at the current betting line of +1845, I see enough value in that to make my mouth water. It is possible that Baszler’s cardio will be improved, but I am counting against it and hoping I’m right. I think if she begins to fade like she has done in previous fights, “Pitbull” will put the pressure on until she finds a finish. Lightweight bout: Damon “The Leech” Jackson (-110) vs Yancy Medeiros (-110) Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (+175) 1u to win 1.75u Jackson by Submission (+220) 1u to win 2.2u Jackson by T/KO (+1090) .2u to win 2.18u Jackson is simply the better fighter here and certainly has the better ground game. I see the fight hitting the mat, sooner rather than later, where it will be in his world and he will ultimate ‘leech’ onto a submission, likely putting the Hawaiian to sleep. Though on short notice, I expect this to be an impressive debut for the Legacy FC featherweight champion. He is fighting one weight class above at 155-pounds, so the weight cut should not be an issue. He will be at a size disadvantage, but I think that will play in his favor, as he will have the speed advantage, which is something that will be beneficial in his submission attemts.

Written by Gabe Killian

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