The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 49 is a three-round welterweight bout between Jordan “Young Gun” Mein and Mike “Quicksand” Pyle. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Mein as a -230 favorite (bet $230 to win $100) while Pyle is a +190 underdog (bet $100 to win $190). Mein opened as a -190 favorite while Pyle opened as a +150 dog, meaning there has been some action on the favorite Mein thus far. I agree with the action headed in Mein’s direction as I’m taking him to collect the W in this spot. Here’s why. Mein (28-9) is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Dan Miller and Hernani Perpetuo and a loss to Matt Brown. Just 24 years of age, Mein is one of the top fighters at 170lbs and with so much experience in his career he could be a dark horse contender in the UFC welterweight division. He is an excellent striker with vicious knockout ability and he’s shown time and time again that standing with him is a bad idea. In the last four years he has lost only three times, to Brown, Tyron Woodley and Jason High, three excellent fighters. Although Mein isn’t great on the ground and although he doesn’t have great cardio, he is an absolutely deadly fighter in the first round and he’s a tough fight for anyone at 170lbs, especially someone with a questionable chin. Although Mein has flaws in his game, he holds a lot of advantages over his opponent Pyle and I understand why he is such a decent favorite here. Pyle (26-9-1) is one of the best gatekeepers in the UFC welterweight division and at this point a dark horse contender, even despite his advanced age of 38. He is 9-4 in the UFC overall and in his last six outings he’s 5-1 with four TKO wins and the only loss coming to the top-ranked Brown. Pyle’s shown improved striking in recent attacks and with his elbows and knees from the clinch and on the ground is quickly becoming a fan favorite. Along with his improved striking he also has a fantastic ground game, and in his career has tapped out a number of opponents. He looked terrific in his last fight against TJ Waldburger, winning the fight via third-round TKO, and he’ll look to build off that win against Mein here. But while Pyle has looked great, he showed in the Brown fight his questionable chin, and in his career we’ve seen that when he gets hurt he has a hard time surviving. Mein is a dangerous striker and extremely aggressive and Pyle has trouble dealing with opponents who pressure him, so if Mein can land his strikes he has a good chance for a TKO win, which is why he is the favorite and why Pyle is such a big dog despite his skillset. Although Pyle is a crafty veteran, he’s been a winner in the UFC, and has the skills to pull off the upset, I honestly think he’s in for a very rough night. Mein is only 24 while Pyle is 38 and historically when there’s been that big of an age gap between fighters – especially when the skill level is the same – the younger fighter more than often wins wins. Although Pyle is a savvy vet, we’ve seen time and time again his chin is not good and Mein has a lot of knockout power. Look for the young Canadian to end this fight with a vicious knockout to move into the top 15 of the world at 170lbs and continue his march up the UFC welterweight ladder. At -220, I like Mein as the first piece of a two-team parlay. I just really think he’s going to win this fight and although he cost bettors against Brown last year, this is a good fight for bettors to win back what they lost betting on him there. I do think he wins the fight via stoppage as well, so if you can get that prop at plus money it could be worth a shot. But the best bet here in Mein as the first leg of a two-team parlay, and he should come through with the win.
