UFC 175 Fight Breakdown: Uriah Hall (-440) vs. Thiago Santos (+350)

TUF-Finale One of the main card bouts at UFC 175 is a three-round middleweight bout between Uriah Hall and Thiago “Marreta” Santos. The current betting line for the fight at 5Dimes Sportsbook lists Hall as a -440 favorite (bet $440 to win $100) while Santos is a +350 underdog (bet $100 to win $350). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Hall at -425 and Santos at +305, meaning there has been some support for the fav Hall. I agree with the support for Hall as I’m picking him to win this fight. Here’s why. Hall (8-4) was the runner-up on TUF 17 and has since gone 1-2 in the UFC with a TKO win over Chris Leben and split decision losses to John Howard and Kelvin Gastelum. Just 29 years of age, Hall is an extremely deadly striker with brutal power in his hands and legs and overall owns five wins by T/KO as well as a few more wins by T/KO on TUF over Bubba McDaniel, Adam Cella and Dylan Andrews. He has not looked great in the UFC as his wrestling hasn’t been up to par and he has appeared too passive with his striking, but he is still a very talented mixed martial artist and the UFC likes him a lot. Coming off the biggest win of his career over Leben, Hall has been booked to fight Santos in a fight that is stylistically favorable to Hall, who should be able to keep the fight standing and use his superior striking to get the win. But he’s been flaky in the UFC, and if he doesn’t show up with the right mindset he could be in store for an upset. However, based on everything we know he is taking this fight very seriously and he should really win it on paper, which is why he is the favorite here. Santos (9-2) was on TUF season 2, losing to eventual winner Leonardo Santos on the show before getting his shot in the UFC and losing his debut to Cezar Mutante via first-round submission last summer at UFC 163. After taking some time off to work on his game, Santos returned to the Octagon earlier this year and knocked out Ronny Markes in a huge upset with a body kick for his first UFC win — and also one of the biggest underdog cashes in MMA history. However, while he did look terrific in that fight I’m still not sold on Santos and don’t think he’s a super prospect or anything. He is only 30, though, so he is probably on the rise, but the UFC isn’t doing him any favors by matching him up against Hall here. It’s a fight that stylistically favors his opponent, but if Santos can continue to show improvements he could take the victory here in an upset, although it will not be easy. Although he has a tendency to not live up to expectations, I believe Hall will keep this fight standing and outstrike Santos for three rounds to get a decision win, or possibly even show some aggression and get a knockout. The line is high at -440, but I think Hall wins this fight and I don’t blame anyone who wants to parlay him. I also favor OVER 2.5 rounds in this fight. It’s -130 at the moment, but if it drops to plus money I’ll probably make a play on it as I see this fight going all three rounds and Hall winning a clear-cut decision on the cards.

Written by Adam Martin.

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