Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 44

Colton SmithUFC Fight Night 44 Date: June 28, 2014 Arena: AT&T Center City: San Antonio, TX UFC Fight Night 44 will be live tonight from San Antonio, TX with 11 scheduled bouts, including a six fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and preliminary action kicking off at 5pm ET on the same channel. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers for this card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 44 are: Lightweight bout: James Moontasri (+188) vs Joe Ellenberger (-205) Moontsari Inside the Distance (+470) 1u to win 4.7u Moontsari +3.5 (-125) 1.25u to win 1u Simply put, Moontasri is the superior striker and I think he is going to have his way with Ellenberger on the feet, possibly en route to a T/KO victory; and if not, then a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. For a full write-up on this 155-pound scrap, please refer to my fight article for the bout. Lightweight bout: Carlos Diego Ferreira (-190) vs Colton Smith (+175) Smith by Decision (+275) 1u to win 2.75u Fight Goes to Decision (-105) 1.05u to win 1u I ever-so slightly favor Ferreira to win this bout, because I feel he has more routes to victory, whereas I think Smith’s chances are only via decision. That said, I think Smith’s chances of picking up a decision here are actually pretty good. He could get subbed, finished on the feet, or outpointed en route to a decision loss, but I feel his chances of employing a successful wrestling gameplan to grind out a win could prove to be successful, if that is indeed what he plans to do in this match-up. If he plans to play the role of a wet blanket, then he very well could walk away with an uneventful unanimous 30-27 nod. This is a very close fight and I feel the value, even on the moneyline, is with Smith, but I don’t see any sense in playing him straight when I feel he only wins a decision, so I really like this prop, but liked it better when it was at +350. Bantamweight bout: Cody Gibson (+170) vs Johnny Bedford (-185) Gibson +3.5 (-165) 1.65 to win 1u I believe Gibson has a very good chance of upsetting the hometown favorite in this bantamweight match-up. I feel the only way Gibson loses this fight is via decision, whereas he could finish with either submission or T/KO, as well as earn a decision. I really love this prop because worst case scenario, I see him losing a 29-28 nod. I don’t see him dropping a unanimous 30-27 to Bedford. For a full write-up on this 135-pound tilt, I refer you to my fight article for the scrap. Flyweight bout: Ray Borg (+460) vs Shane Howell (+410) Borg Inside the Distance (-160) 1.6u to win 1u Howell has a significant size advantage over Borg heading into this match-up, though I don’t expect that to play a factor. I think Borg will manage to take him down and work him on the mat en route to a submission victory, post likely a rear naked choke. Howell is taking this fight on short notice and could gas, should the fight hit the second and third stanza. I felt Borg won his Octagon debut against Dustin Ortiz, but judges awarded a split decision to Ortiz, and Borg now badly wants his first win inside the Octagon, and I believe he will earn it in impressive fashion, likely within the very first round of action. There is no Borg in Round 1 prop offered for this bout, otherwise I would have likely been on it.

Written by Gabe Killian

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UFC Fight Night 44 Undercard Preview for ‘Swanson vs Stephens’ Prelims on Fox Sports 1

UFC Fight Night 44 Play: Joe “Excalibur” Ellenberger (-192) vs James “Moonwalker” Moontasri (+177)