The main event of UFC Fight Night 40 is a five-round welterweight bout between Erick “Indio” Silva and Matt “The Immortal” Brown. The current betting line for the fight at 5Dimes Sportsbook lists Silva as a -235 favorite (bet $235 to win $100) while Brown is a +195 underdog (bet $100 to win $195). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Silva at -170 and Brown at +130, meaning the betting public is siding with Silva here. This is a closer fight than the odds indicate, but I can see why the public has taken the line on Silva higher as I’m picking him to win the fight. Here’s why. Silva (16-4, 1 NC) is one of the most explosive athletes in the UFC. The 29-year-old Brazilian has wicked explosive power, and he also has an unbelievable submission game to go along with it and 13 of his career wins have come via stoppage. 4-3 overall in the UFC, Silva is still young enough and talented enough to make a run for the title, but he needs to start being more consistent inside the cage if he wants to ever compete for the belt. In his last outing against Takenori Sato, Silva showed just how explosive and creative he is with a vicious knockout during a takedown attempt by his opponent, and he looks to ride that momentum into this bout against Brown. He enters the fight as the favorite, which is surprising to many people, but given his advantages in the submission department, it does make sense. Brown (18-11) is one of the toughest and most dangerous fighters in the UFC welterweight division. The 33-year-old first appeared on TUF season seven and since his time on the show has carved out a very nice career for himself in the UFC, going 11-5 overall in the promotion including his current six-fight win streak over fighters such as Mike Pyle, Jordan Mein, Mike Swick, and Stephen Thompson. He has a terrific muay Thai attack with knockout power in all limbs, an iron chin, and his grappling has improved in recent years as well. He has looked great as of late, and after missing the last eight months with a back injury he’s ready to get back in the win column and inch closer to a welterweight title shot. But first he has to get by Silva, who is arguably a bad matchup for Brown given Silva’s pedigree on the ground and Brown’s nine career submission losses. But will that matter if Silva can’t get the fight to the ground? We’ll have to watch and find out this weekend in the main event of UFC Fight Night 40. I believe the fight is going to end up on the mat at some point and I think on the ground Silva is much better than Brown, so I think Silva should be able to lock in the submission for the win. At -235, I think the line on Silva is too high so I’m passing on him here for a bet, and I’m passing on Brown too. However, there is one play that I really like here and it’s the fight not making it the five round distance, which is only -485. I don’t see any way this fight makes it the full 25 minutes so I think that prop has great value as a parlay piece and that’s my recommended bet in this fight.