The co-main event of the TUF Nations Finale is a three-round welterweight bout between Kyle “KO” Noke and Patrick “The Predator” Cote. The current betting line for the fight at 5Dimes Sportsbook lists Noke as a -120 favorite (bet $120 to win $100) while Cote is a +100 underdog (bet $100 to win $100). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Cote at -130 and Noke at -110, meaning there has been back-and-forth action on the bout but with more money coming in on Noke, who is now the favorite. I agree with Noke being the favorite as I’m picking him to win the fight as well. Here’s why. Noke (20-6-1) was the coach of Team Australia on TUF Nations. The 34-year-old is a well-rounded mixed martial artist with solid wrestling, good submissions, and also underrated knockout power. He also has a solid chin, having only been knocked out once in his entire career. The former bodyguard for Steve Irvin is 4-2 in the UFC with wins over Charlie Brenneman, Chris Camozzi, Josh Bryant and Rob Kimmons and losses to Andrew Craig and Ed Herman. That win over Brenneman was in his welterweight debut at UFC 152, which took place in September 2012 and which is the last time Noke was in the cage as he’s dealt with injuries and coached TUF since. Coming into Cote’s backyard is going to be tough for Noke, but he is a well-seasoned fighter and training at Greg Jackson’s camp, he should be well prepared for battle. Look for Noke to have a good showing in Quebec, but the fact the fight takes place in his opponents’ home province could very well prove to be a massive disadvantage on fight night. Cote (19-8) was the coach of Team Canada on TUF Nations and a long-time veteran of the UFC who made his welterweight debut last year, defeating Bobby Voelker via unanimous decision at UFC 158. The 34-year-old has won his last two fights overally but they weren’t without controversy and the Voelker decision was questionable, as was his DQ win over Alessio Sakara. Still, side from a decision loss to Cung Le at UFC 148, Cote has won six of his last seven overall and you have to give him credit for getting his hand raised. He’s also shown some improvements in his overall game as he’s not just striking with his opponents now but also looking to fight them on the ground. Armed with an iron chin and knockout power, Cote is a tough out for anyone in the UFC welterweight division and he should make for a good fight against Noke, who is a similar fighter in many ways. This should be a competitive mixed martial arts match that takes place both on the feet, up against the fence, and on the ground. Although Noke’s nickname is “KO” and although he did knock out Brenneman in his welterweight debut, I don’t think he has what it takes to become the first man to finish Cote with strikes for the first time in his career. Look for the fight to be close on the judges’ scorecards but look for Noke to get the decision nod, even in Cote’s backyard. This is a close fight and it just depends how confident you are in the judges getting it right if you want to wager it. While I do think Noke wins, the possibility of biased judging in Quebec is a huge concern and it really limits my ability to recommend a play here, although I do think it’s a favorite or pass situation regardless. The props are more interesting to me for this than the moneylines in this one as “the fight goes the distance” is only -130, which to me is good value for a fight that should more often than not go to decision.