Legacy FC 30 Fight Breakdown: Holly Holm (-2000) vs. Juliana Werner (+1000)

Holly-Holm The main event of Legacy FC 30 is a five-round title fight for the vacant Legacy FC women’s bantamweight championship between Holly “The Peacher’s Daughter” Holm and Juliana “Julie” Werner. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Holm as a -2000 favorite (bet $2000 to win $100) while Werner is a +1000 underdog (bet $100 to win $1000). MMA oddsmaker originally opened up Holm at -2000 and Werner at +1000, so there has been no action thus far. There has been little action on this fight because 1) the line is new, and 2) because Holm is -2000. And that’s because she should easily win this fight. Here’s why. Holm (6-0) is a former world boxing and kickboxing champion who has made the switch to MMA in brilliant fashion, as she is so far 6-0 as a mixed martial artist with five of those wins coming way of stoppage. The 32-year-old disciple of Mike Winkeljohn is an amazingly-talented striker, capable of throwing with power, technique, and precision, and she does it all with her trademark grunt that she unleashes with every strike thrown. A super-aggressive fighter, she has also shown solid takedown defence throughout her MMA career. However, she hasn’t been tested on the ground yet and there’s no telling how she would fare against stiffer competition. Still, she is by far the best female bantamweight fighter not in the UFC at the moment, and with a win over Werner at Legacy FC 30, the heat will be on UFC president Dana White to ink her to a deal and start putting her on the fast track to fight Ronda Rousey for the UFC women’s bantamweight championship. Werner (7-3) makes her Legacy FC debut against Holm, and it’s a fight the 32-year-old Brazilian is not supposed to win, and that’s why she enters as such a big underdog. But she’s a pretty talented muay Thai striker herself with four career knockout wins to her name, and she has a puncher’s chance to end the fight with Holm. She has also fought better competition than Holm, including three fights against Invicta’s Vanessa Porto (three losses). Still, this is Legacy FC bringing in someone to lose, and while Werner may actually make the fight interesting for stretches, eventually she will be hit hard by Holm, and eventually she will be knocked out. All due respect to Werner, but it’s just inevitable what’s going to happen. I don’t see this being much of a fight. Holm should be able to keep the fight on the feet and control the striking pretty easily in this one, and I’m confident that in a five-round fight at some point Holm is going to clip Werner with either a punch, kick, knee or elbow — or a combination of all of those — and finish her in devastating fashion to claim the vacant Legacy FC women’s bantamweight title. At -2000, I would definitely pass this fight. There’s just no value at all in the line and it’s not even worth throwing into a parlay because it barely adds anything, Just watch the fight as a fan, appreciate Holm’s striking for what it is, and target other fighters at less juiced-up prices for bets. I should mention there is no total available to bet on for this bout, but if there were of course I would lean under.

Written by Adam Martin.

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