UFC 171 Fight Breakdown: Justin Scoggins (-460) vs Will Campuzano (+365)

Will-Campuzano One of the prelims at UFC 171 is a flyweight tilt between Justin “Tank” Scoggins and Will Campuzano. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers lists Scoggins as a -460 favorite (bet $460 to win $100) while Campuzano is a +365 underdog (bet $100 to win $365). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Scoggins at -280 and Campuzano at +200, meaning the public is all over the favortie Scoggins here. I agree with the betting public as I am also picking Scoggins to win the fight. Here’s why. Scoggins (8-0) is one of the top flyweight prospects in the game and he had a tremendous UFC debut last December at UFC Fight Night 33, defeating TUF Smashes veteran Richie Vaculik via first-round TKO. The 21-year-old Scoggins comes from a karate background but now he trains MMA at American Top Team and he’s rapidly improving his game, and in the fight with Vaculik everyone saw he has very good wrestling as well. But it’s really his striking that’s his bread and butter, and it’s some of the cleanest technique in the lighter-weight classes. All in all, Scoggins looks like a future champion in MMA, and with a win over Campuzano in his second UFC outing he will take a big step up the rankings. Campuzano (13-5) is a UFC and WEC vet, but he’s did very poorly in those promotions as he has a combined 1-5 record, including a decision loss to Sergio Pettis in his return to the Octagon at UFC 167. But the UFC has given the 27-year-old another chance and he’s dropped down to flyweight, where he’s had regional circuit success, for his second return bout in the Octagon. Although Campuzano is a big flyweight who is a solid wrestler and is overall tough, the UFC certainly hasn’t done him any favors by matching him up against a potential future champion in Scoggins, and so Campuzano will have to overcome the odds and win in a big upset if he wants to keep his spot on the UFC roster. And that is likely easier said than done. I believe Scoggins will be able to fend off Campuzano’s takedowns attempts, keep the fight standing, and outstrike him on the feet for either a T/KO victory or a judges’ decision. Although Campuzano is tough, I lean towards a finish, and I could see Scoggins doing it in highlight-reel fashion with either a head kick or a body punch punch knockout. At -460, I think the line on Scoggins is out of betting range so I’d have to recommend a pass right now. However, it it drops back down near the opener of -280 then I’d certainly say pull the trigger. I don’t see the line coming down that far, though, so I’d say just watch this one as a fan as it should be exciting and entertaining, although I can’t blame you if you put Scoggins in a parlay. Also, there is a total on this fight and it was set at 2.5 rounds. I lean UNDER 2.5 rounds, and it’s +150 so that could be the bet to make on this fight as I see a finish coming within the first two-and-a-half rounds.

Written by Adam Martin.

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