MMA Odds and Ends for Monday: Early Thoughts on UFC 172 Lines

UFC-on-FOX Over the weekend, UFC line setter Nick Kalikas opened a number of new lines for the upcoming UFC 172 card, and for today’s MMA Odds and Ends I’ll give my quick thoughts on the lines. Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira In the main event of the evening, Jon Jones puts the UFC light heavyweight title on the line against Glover Teixeira. This line was opened months ago, with Jones at -735 and Teixeira at +475, and right now you can see Jones is -600 and Teixeira is +450, meaning some action has come in on the dog Teixeira. This is a fight that Jones should win on paper, but fights aren’t fought on paper and I can’t blame anyone for betting on Teixeira at such great odds. I actually think Teixeira has a better chance that most think and I’ll probably put a flier on him as well, as I see absolutely no value in the current line on the champ Jones at -600 after taking a beating from Alexander Gustafsson in his last outing. Phil Davis vs. Anthony Johnson In the co-main event, a light heavyweight bout between Phil Davis and Anthony Johnson could prove to be a top contender’s fight at 205. Davis opened at -190/Johnson at +150, and so far there’s been some action on Davis as he’s now at -210 and Johnson is at +160. This is a tough fight to call as well but I feel like Johnson has a better chance than the bettors are giving him credit for and if he hits over +200, I think he’ll be worth taking a shot on. Tarec Saffiedine vs. Jake Ellenberger A welterweight fight between Tarec Saffiedine and Jake Ellenberger is amongst the most interesting bouts on the entire card, and the line has bounced around a bit since opening. Saffiedine opened at -155 and Ellenberger at +115, and so far there’s been some action on the dog as Saffiedine is -135 and Ellenberger is -105. This is a competitive fight and I think that the early bettors who took the plus money on Ellenberger might be on the right track here, but right now this fight is too close to call for me and I don’t confidently have a lean either way. Joseph Benavidez vs. Tim Elliott A flyweight bout between Joseph Benavidez and Tim Elliott should be interesting. Benavidez opened at -405 and Elliott opened at +285, and right now the line is Benavidez -270/Elliott +190. This is a tricky fight and although I do favor Benavidez, the line was high on him and I can’t blame the early bettors for taking Elliott at nearly +300. That being said, I do think Benavidez wins, but this is a complete pass for him unless he drops below -200. Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Boetsch And finally, a middleweight bout between Luke Rockhold and Tim Boetsch should prove to be a very one-sided fight. The line opened at -600 Rockhold/+400 Boetsch, but the action has been coming in on Rockhold and now he’s all the way up to -1350, with the comeback on Boetsch +650. I like Boetsch and he’s a tough guy but Rockhold is a terrible matchup for him and I think the money is coming in on the right guy in Rockhold. That being said, at this point the line is too high and he’s not really worth playing. But he should win.

Written by Adam Martin.

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