MMA Odds and Ends for Monday: Early Thoughts On New UFC 171 Lines

Diego Sanchez The remaining main card odds for UFC 171 were released over the weekend by MMA line setter Nick Kalikas, and for today’s MMA Odds and Ends I’ll give my initial thoughts on them. Myles Jury (-210) vs. Diego Sanchez (+160) The main card’s FOTN candidate is a lightweight bout between the rising Myles Jury and veteran Diego Sanchez. Considering both these guys almost always come to fight for the fans, I can’t see how this fight will be boring. Jury opened up as the favorite here, and for good reason as he’s been nothing but impressive in the UFC so far, going 4-0 in the promotion. But Sanchez is one of those fighters who you can never count out of a fight, and he’s one of those fighters the judges absolutely love giving rounds to. At this point, I’m leaning slightly towards Sanchez as the dog because the fight is in Texas and the judging there historically favors the man/woman walking forward, but I know a lot of people like Jury in this spot and it’s hard to disagree with them considering how good he’s looked in the UFC. It’s a tough fight to call, and will likely come down to how the three judges sitting cageside see it. Hector Lombard (-165) vs. Jake Shields (+125) A welterweight scrap between former middleweights also takes place on the UFC 171 main card as Hector Lombard takes on Jake Shields. This is another interesting fight, and it’s another bout I believe is dog or pass. When the matchup was first announced I was definitely thinking Lombard was going to be my play here, but the more I thought about it the more I can’t recommend a bet on him. Yes, he has KO power, but he also has a number of other flaws in his game and Shields is one of those guys that can make a fighter look really bad if he takes advantage of his opponent’s flaws. And that could happen in this fight. The number on Shields isn’t high enough yet, but it he cracks +200 I don’t see how he couldn’t be worth a bet. As for Lombard, I’d be worried about laying juice on him as overall he’s been disappointing overall in the UFC. Ovince St-Preux (-280) vs. Nikita Krylov (+200) And finally there’s an intriguing light heavyweight bout that opens up the UFC 171 main card between Ovince St-Preux and Nikita Krylov. St-Preux was originally set to square off against Thiago Silva until Silva was arrested on gun charges and cut from the UFC, while Krylov is making his 205lb debut here fresh off his TKO win over Walt Harris at UFC on FOX 10. This is an interesting fight, and my initial thoughts are laying the juice on OSP is a bad idea. I know that he should win this fight, but that doesn’t mean he will. Just like Harris in the last fight, people’s disdain for Krylov is the reason why the betting line on his opponent is so overinflated, and I really don’t think the big number on OSP is justified in this situation. In my opinion this is as clear as dog or pass as it gets. I know OSP will be a parlay key for a number of bettors, but not for me. I’ll be staying far away from him, and in fact I might actually be recommending a small play on Krylov if the number keeps rising.

Written by Adam Martin.

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