UFC 170 MMAOddsBreaker vs The MMA Corner $1000 Betting Contest

MMA-Odds-Breaker-Episode-12As a fun way to spice up tonight’s UFC 170 pay-per-view, we at MMAOddsBreaker.com decided to have a friendly competition with fellow site TheMMACorner.com. The rules? Start with $1000 fake dollars and see what you could make with it. The site who wins the most (or potentially loses the least) is the winner. To keep things simple, we kept our plays to straight bets, totals and parlays. Also, we asked that each site provide an explanation for their plays. For clarity’s sake, we’ve also included the UK version of the betting odds, which are posted as fractions. Without further ado: TheMMACorner bets:

$100 on Sara McMann (at +350 or 7/2 odds, to profit $350)
$400 on Raphael Assuncao (at -250 or 2/5 odds, to profit $160)
$200 on Zach Makovsky (at -187 or 8/15 odds, to profit $106.67)
$300 on a parlay with Demian Maia, Alexis Davis, Eric Koch and Aljamain Sterling (if ALL four win, they profit $2712.40)
Bet explanation:
First off, I think that McMann is worth a go for the odds as there is a good chance she will use her wrestling dominance to stifle Rousey to earn a decision victory. I think the top control that McMann will be able to implement on Rousey will nullify Rousey from turning her hips to work for the famed arm bar finish.
Secondly, I think Assuncao is worthy of a title shot against Renan Barao and will get that shot after beating a late replacement in Munhoz on Saturday night. Munhoz is well versed in submission but I don’t think he will get the opportunity to display his skills against Assuncao who is himself a respectable grappler.
The last of my outright bets lies with Zach Makovsky who I think has too much for Sampo in this one. His victory over Scott Jorgensen showed that he is a serious contender in the division and whilst Sampo also won in his last outing, this was against much less impressive competition in Ryan Benoit. Overall, I think the experience and skill lies with Makovsky and he will continue his rise to the top of the division with a win in this one.
For my final bet I have gone with a few underdogs and favourites collected together in order to raise the odds to make the bet worthwhile. Maia has the ability to shut out any opponent and whilst McDonald might be considered the next contender from Tristar, I think Maia will be able to close him down. I have added in Alexis Davis and Eric Koch to make the bet worthwhile whilst placing a lot of faith in Ray Longo’s training methods and trusting that Longo-Serra product Aljamain Sterling will be the latest talent to emerge from that camp.

MMAOddsBreaker bets:

  • $250 on Jessica Eye (at +125 or 5/4 odds, to profit$312.5)
  • $250 on TJ Waldburger (at +162 or 13/8 odds, to profit $406.25)
  • $250 on Stephen Thompson (at -127 or 8/11 odds, to profit $181.82)
  • $250 on a parlay with Aljamain Sterling, Ronda Rousey and Erik Koch (If ALL three win, we profit $257.41)
Explanations on our bets:
Nick Kalikas feels Jessica Eye will put the personal issues that have plagued the lead-up to this fight behind her. He’s confident she’ll be able to keep this fight standing, where she can work her solid jab and outpoint Davis on the feet en route to a decision victory so we’re taking a stab at plus money.
With TJ Waldburger, despite being concerned about his chin, we feel the age gap between Mike Pyle and Waldburger (13 years) is just too juicy of a statistic to bet against. As long as Waldburger doesn’t get knocked out early, he has a decent chance of taking Pyle down and outworking him on the canvas. He also has decent punching power and if he connects with Pyle on the feet, there’s a slight chance he could finish it there, although that’s not likely.
With Stephen Thompson, we feel the fight against Whittaker is most likely going to stay standing, where “Wonderboy” should have a significant advantage overall in terms of pace, output, diversity of attack, overall technique and striking defense. Those all point to intangibles that could at worst win him a decision if not score a knockout or TKO finish.
The Sterling/Rousey/Koch parlay are all three favorites that we really like and expect to not only win their fights but completely dominate. It’s not a huge return on investment, but it seems like a safe one.
Remember everyone, this is all in good fun. Don’t take it too seriously!

Written by Brian Hemminger

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UFC 170 Play: “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey (-450) vs Sara McMann (+400)

UFC 170 Play: Robert Whittaker (+110) vs Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (-120)