UFC 170 Fight Breakdown: Ronda Rousey (-450) vs. Sara McMann (+400)

Sara McMann 2 The main event of UFC 170 is a five-round title fight between UFC women’s bantamweight champion “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey and Sara McMann. The current betting line for the fight at 5Dimes Sportsbook lists Rousey as a -450 betting favorite (bet $450 to win $100) while McMann is a +400 underdog (bet $100 to win $400). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Rousey at -705 and McMann at +435, meaning the betting public has been wagering on the underdog McMann. I disagree with the line movement here as I am picking Rousey to once again defend the UFC women’s bantamweight championship. Here’s why. Rousey (8-0) is the UFC women’s bantamweight champion as is regarded by many as the premier female mixed martial artist on the planet. The 27-year-old is undefeated in her pro MMA career at 8-0, with all wins coming by way of armbar submission, including seven inside the first round. Despite being 27 years old, Rousey has already defeated the likes of Miesha Tate (x2), Sarah Kaufman, Julia Budd, Liz Carmouche, Ediane Gomes, Charmaine Tweet, and Sarah D’Alelio. That’s a who’s who of women bantamweights (and featherweights), and considering she is only improving every fight, it’s hard to say who’s going to take her crown. The winner of the bronze medal in judo at the 2008 Olympic Summer Games, Rousey is an amazing athlete and if he she keeps winning, she has the opportunity to become known as one of the most dominating fighters in the history of the sport. This weekend at UFC 170, Rousey is finally fighting a grappler on her level, and the fight is going to ultimately come down to who is stronger and whether or not Rousey’s judo trumps McMann’s wrestling. McMann (7-0) won the silver medal in freestyle wrestling at the 2004 Olympic Summer Games and since making her MMA debut in 2011 she’s gone 7-0 with three wins by submission and one by knockout. The 33-year-old is an extremely strong woman and she uses her strength to take her opponents to the ground and bully them once there. The owner of notable career victories over Shayna Baszler, Sheila Gaff and Tonya Evinger, McMann has all the tools needed to become a champion of the sport, but whether she can get there depends on if she can take out Rousey this weekend at UFC 170. And although I do give McMann a better chance than anyone who has fought Rousey up to this point, it’s still going to be an uphill climb and McMann enters the fight as a hefty underdog for a reason. McMann is an excellent athlete but her biggest strength, wrestling, won’t help her out much against a fighter who wants her to use it so the fight hits the ground. Although there are some that believe McMann will use her wrestling in reverse, I don’t see this fight taking place on the feet all that much. I think it hits the ground pretty early, and I think Rousey is going to — once again — find a way to sink in her patented armbar and defend the UFC women’s bantamweight championship in impressive fashion. At -450, I do like Rousey for parlays. I think that she should be about -700 in this spot, which is where the line opened, and while I understand why people are putting their faith in McMann, to me this just seems like too much for her at this point in her career considering she hasn’t fought that many high-level fighters and Rousey is the best in the world at her weight. I think Rousey by submission at -175 and Rousey inside the distance at -212 are also very solid bets with very solid value, and I’m surprised the juice isn’t higher on either of those props.

Written by Adam Martin.

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