One of the matchups being overlooked on the TUF 18 Finale card is a welterweight matchup between Sean “Black Magic” Spencer and Drew Dober. The current betting line for the fight at Several Bookmakers sees Spencer as a -190 favorite (bet $190 to win $100), while Dober is a +150 dog (bet $100 to win $150). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Spencer as a -265 favorite and Dober as a +185 underdog, meaning the early action from the betting public is on the dog Dober. Personally though I believe the early action is coming in on the wrong man, as I am picking Spencer to win this fight. Here’s why. Spencer (10-2) made his UFC debut earlier this year, fighting up a weight class and on short notice against Rafael Natal. And while Spencer did end up losing that fight via third-round submission, he showed he was game and in his second UFC fight he was able to win a split decision over Yuri Villefort in Brazil. The 26-year-old showed in the Villefort fight that he is a good striker out of Texas and has potential to be a player in the welterweight division if he keeps improving and rounding out his game. Spencer was originally set to take on BJJ ace Sergio Moraes, but after an injury to Moraes, former TUF 15 contestant Drew Dober has stepped up a weight class himself and now takes on Spencer this weekend in the opening prelim bout of the TUF 18 Finale. Dober (13-4) competed on TUF 15 but didn’t end up making it to the UFC afterwards despite a number of his fellow housemates getting a chance in the Octagon. But since leaving the TUF house, Dober has put together a 4-1 record — the only loss coming to Will Brooks, by the way — and with his recent with over UFC vet TJ O’Brien, he caught Joe Silva’s eye and now he gets a chance to fight in the Octagon. Although Dober is relatively well-rounded and mostly a finisher, I have a feeling that he won’t be in the best of shape considering he took this fight against Spencer on less than two weeks’ notice, and considering the fact he will be fighting at welterweight and not his natural weight class of lightweight, the odds are definitely stacked against him. I was liking Spencer for a pick when this fight was first announced, but when he opened at -265 I felt he wasn’t worth a bet. Now at -190, though, I definitely think there is value on Spencer here as I cap him closer to -250 in this fight and I feel like this is yet another bout on the TUF 18 Finale card where I’m going against the betting public’s early action. That’s sometimes a good thing, but it’s sometimes a bad thing, so we’ll see this weekend who is right. Regardless, though, at the current like I am liking Spencer for a small play as I think he will outpoint Dober en route to a decision win, or possibly even win via stoppage, to improve to 2-1 in the Octagon an emerge as yet another stud prospect in the UFC welterweight division.