Gabe Killian’s UFC 167 Betting Recap and Results

Erik-PerezUFC 167 was live from Las Vegas, N.V. this past Saturday (Nov. 17, 2013), and featured many exciting fights. It wasn’t a good night, as far as bets go, as it ultimately resulted in my fifth losing card of 2013… Things did not start off well, as Will Campuzano (+380) dropped a decision to Sergio Pettis, and we lost a small to moderate play on him, along with a small play on Campuzano by Sub (+1505). It was a close fight and I do not agree with the 30-27 scorecards. That decision could have easily gone to Campuzano. At +380, I believe this was the right bet in this particular match-up. Following that bantamweight fight on our betting sheet was a scrap between another pair of 135-pounders, as Edwin Figueroa +340 took on Erik Perez. Unlike the Campuzano bet, I feel I made a very bad call with this one. I thought Figueroa would be able to make it a closer fight. Perez likes to brawl, so I thought Fig would be able to connect and knock him out, because the kid has serious power. I did not expect Perez to take the fight to the mat. We lost a moderate to big value play there, along with a play on Figueroa by T/KO (+1100). Next, we lost a value play on Brian Ebersole (+190), as he dropped a unanimous decision to Rick Story. We also lost on Ebersole by Decision (+373). Story has made serious improvements in his game. I expected Ebersole to be able to do to him what Charlie Brenneman did, as I believe Ebersole is a better fighter than Brenneman. Alas, MMA math often does not work. The big dump we are taking continues, as we lose a moderate play on Evan Dunham +100, who gets submitted by Donald Cerrone in the second round, via triangle choke. That was the end of the prelims, and it marked the only time I’ve ever lost every recommended bet on the preliminary card. I say “recommended” bet, because I did cash a small personal 2-team parlay on Jason High and Gian Villante. Things started to look a little better, as the main card got underway. We cashed a play on Ali Bagautinov (+125), as he defeated Tim Elliott via unanimous decision, which also allowed our play on Bagautinov by Decision (+255) to cash. Next up was my recommended max bet on Rory MacDonald (-360) and a big play on MacDonald by Decision (+165). I was truly surprised by the outcome of this fight, and it goes to show you, anything can happen inside the cage. With the loss here, I became 7-1 with my recommended max bets for MMA Odds Breaker. The last max bet prior to this one was on Alexis Davis, who was a decent sized underdog. Deep in the red, we go into the co-main event, where we have a big play on Fight Goes to Decision (-225) and Rashad Evans by Decision (+140). We lost both plays, as Evans TKO’d Chael Sonnen in the very first round of action. That fight did not go as expected. I was confident Rashad would win, but I made the mistake of thinking he wouldn’t want to really hurt Sonnen, so I assumed he would just cruise to an easy 30-27 nod. Many lessons to be learned in the game of betting MMA… In the main event of the evening, we cashed moderate plays on Georges St. Pierre (-270) and GSP by Dec (+100), as he took a controversial split decision victory over Johny Hendricks. We cashed nicely on this fight, but it did not really make a difference. We were still deep in the hole… Cashing a bet on Tyrone Woodley wins Knockout of the Night (+1100) really helped, but it wasn’t enough. We ended the night being in the negative, but as far as the weekend goes, we nearly broke even. Prior to the UFC card, we cashed a big Bellator parlay for +126 and a moderate play on Galvao/McKenna u2.5 (-200). To go with those, we cashed a moderate Legacy FC play on Carlos Diego Ferreira (-200), who defeated Jorge Patino for the promotions lightweight title. We took one on the chin this past Sat., but we’ll be answering back with a knockout punch soon enough. Don’t go anywhere…

Written by Gabe Killian

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