Gabe Killian’s UFC Fight Night 30 Betting Recap

Machida MunozUFC Fight Night 30 started off strong this past Saturday night (Oct. 26, 2013), with our first play on Brad Scott +245 cashing easily in the very first round. That also covered our play on Scott +3.5 +145, though we lost on Scott by Dec +525. Things continued to go smoothly with my Twitter play on Jimy Hettes -3.5 -255 cashing, along with a personal bet on Hettes ITD -145, which I preferred over the Hettes by Sub prop at -110, in case he somehow got a TKO stoppage. Things quickly began to take a turn. Cole Miller defeated Andy Ogle via unanimous decision, and we lost bets on Ogle +150 and Ogle by Dec +295. In hindsight, I feel this was a poor play on my part. I expected Ogle to fight in the first two rounds the way he did in the third round and he did not. Ogle is not always there mentally, and I knew that before making this play. He did not try to start fighting until round three and even then he showcased poor fight IQ. He began outstriking Miller and hurting him on the feet, then like a fool decided to take him down to the mat, where spent the rest of the round doing absolutely nothing. It got worse as Luke Barnatt submitted Andrew Craig -170 by rear-naked-choke in the second round, after nearly knocking him out in the first. Craig seemed to be dominating the fight, as I expected, until getting caught with a right hand by Barnatt, which he did not really recover from. If they fought again, I would go with Craig, as I feel he wins more often than not, but I would not be big on him. That was a poor call by me. We lost a big play on Craig there, and the night continued. Al Iaquinta defeated Piotr Hallmann via unanimous decision, in a fight that was much closer than the scorecards indicate. Personally, I thought Hallmann managed to edge it out and was about to get a split decision nod, so I was surprised to see a unanimous decision for Iaquinta. A split, or at worse a 29-28 across I would have understood, but I just don’t see how anyone would give all three rounds to Iaquinta. I personally had it 29-28 for Hallmann. Nonetheless, we lost a moderate play on him at +125, and also a small play on him to win by decision at +352. Personal bets on Lineker -380 and Lineker -3.5 -225 cashed. I wanted to make plays on Lineker by T/KO and Lineker in Round 1, but did not get the chance. I sort of went into a hole after the Craig loss; I stopped tweeting for a bit and didn’t get my senses together until the Sakara/Musoke fight, where I, out of nowhere, decided to make a very small play on Sakara, for no other reason than his opponent being a welterweight fighting on short notice. That play surely tanked, as Musoke submitted Sakara with a Russian belly-down armbar towards the end of the first round. Next, I recommended a big bet on Parke/Tuck over 2.5 -180 and moderate bets on Norman Parke -150 and Parke by Dec +180, which I later upgraded to big bets on Twitter. All three big bets cashed beautifully there, and we move on to the light heavyweights Jimi Minuwa and Ryan Jimmo, which was a closely contested boring affair that ended with a Jimmo injury in the second round. Our play on Over 1.5 rounds -170 cashed, while plays on Jimmo +165 and Jimmo by Dec +400 tanked. To top it off, a recommended Twitter play on Jimmo +3.5 +100 also flopped. For the co-main event, I recommended a moderate Twitter bet on Guillard -130, which should have cashed, but instead resulted in a push. In the main event, I recommended a moderate play on Lyoto Machida ITD -125 that cashed. I came close to making a personal bet on Machida wins in round 1, but decided against it last second, and instead just added more to the ITD (inside the distance) prop at -125. “Machida -400 is juicy but still worth a play,” I said on Twitter, recommending a straight bet on The Dragon. With the Machida win, we also cashed my recommended Twitter parlay on Machida -360, Lineker -380, and Hettes -450 at -103. I also cashed a personal parlay on Machida ITD -125, Lineker ITD -225, and Hettes ITD -255 at +262. I went 2-4 with my fight articles for MMAOB and 6-8 with recommended bets. Although a losing record on paper, the results were slightly profitable. That is not including my recommended prop bet on Craig/Barnatt Fight of the Night +1000, which cashed. I’ve been on fire with my FOTN plays since I started recommending them here, as most have cashed for us. Keep reading, keep tailing, keep cashing. Until next time…

Written by Gabe Killian

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