For the last couple of months, I have been putting together a list of five interesting prop bets at plus money that I believe will cash out, and so far my advice has been pretty sound as I’ve had three winning nights in four tries. My record for the five prop bets I recommended betting on for the last five events:
- UFC Fight Night 27 -> 5/5
- UFC 164 -> 1/5
- UFC Fight Night 28 -> 2/5
- UFC 165 -> 3/5
Keep in mind all of these prop bets are at plus money, and most of them are over the +200 mark. So if you round robin these props, like I do, all you need to do is hit two of the five to be in the clear. Or you can play them straight. It’s up to you. For today’s UFC Fight Night 29 event, there are five props I have my eye on — here they are. Dong Hyun Kim wins by 3-round decision (+300) Dong Hyun Kim takes on Erick Silva in one of the trickiest matchups on the entire cards, but I’m picking Kim to win a decision in Brazil by using his grappling. At +300, I think Kim by decision is the way to go if he’s your side in this fight as that prop is over 100 cents better than the regular Kim moneyline. Thiago Silva wins by 3-round decision (+270) Thiago Silva vs. Matt Hamill is seen as a squash match by most, and I don’t necessarily disagree. However, after seeing Silva miss weight at the official weigh-ins, I’m thinking he just doesn’t care about the fight all that much and may look to cruise to a decision win. So at +270, this prop is definitely worth a stab. Joey Beltran wins by 3-round decision (+195) In one of the best fights on the whole card, Joey Beltran takes on Fabio Maldonado in what should be a war. I see this fight going to the cards, and since I think Beltran is going to be able to outwrestle Maldonado throughout the fight, I think he’ll get the nod. At +195, Beltran by decision is more than worth a shot. Mike Pierce wins inside the distance (+130) Mike Pierce takes on Rousimar Palhares in a welterweight fight that I don’t see going three rounds. Palhares looked drained from the weight cut at the official weigh-ins, while Pierce appeared to be his normally, solid self. That’s bad news for Palhares, who doesn’t have the greatest of chins to begin with. I think Pierce is going to TKO Palhares so at +130 I think this prop is worth a play. Chris Cariaso wins by 3-round decision (+150) In one of the prelim bouts, Chris Cariaso takes on Iliarde Santos in what should be a closely-contested fight. I see this fight going to a decision, and even though the fight is in Brazil, I believe that Cariaso will do enough to win the fight on the judges’ scorecards. At +150, Cariaso by decision — the way he wins this fight like 90 percent of the time, in my opinion — is definitely worth a shot.