UFC Fight Night 29 Bet: Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim (+225) vs Erick Silva (-245)

Erick SilvaUFC Fight Night 29 Date: October 9, 2013 Arena: Jose Correa Arena City: Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim (+225) vs Erick Silva (-245) Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight Night 29 co-main event is a welterweight match-up between veteran Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim and rising prospect Erick Silva. Kim is the underdog heading into this bout at +225 ($100 to win $225), with Silva being the favorite at -245 ($245 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. DONG HYUN “STUN GUN” KIM (17-2-1-1 NC MMA, 8-2-1 NC UFC) is coming off two dominant decision wins over Paulo Thiago and Siyar Bahadurzada and looks to make it three in a row as he goes head-to-head with the much talked-about Brazilian prospect in Silva. Kim is a solid striker with boxing skills but his bread and butter is his ground game, where he displays dominant top control. With his judo base, he has very strong hips, thus is hard to take down and his defense is some of the best in the welterweight division. When he initiates a takedown and gets the fight to the mat, he positions himself well and does not get caught in submissions or get his position reversed. His submission defense is excellent. Training out of Korean Top Team, Kim will be prepared for this bout, and his conditioning should be spot on, as he always goes a full 15 minutes without breaking a sweat. He will certainly have the cardio advantage heading into this bout, not to mention a height and reach advantage. ERICK SILVA (15-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) is a Team Nogueira-trained fighter making his sixth appearance inside the Octagon, and fifth in his home country of Brazil. All three of his victories have come by way of finish inside the very first round. Silva is viewed as a beast in the welterweight division. While he had his troubles against the veteran title challenger Jon Fitch, he did hold his own and put up a good fight, earning the Fight of the Night bonus and at one point having Fitch in trouble with a rear naked choke. Silva is one of those fighters that is flat out skilled all-around. Not just okay-skilled, he is excellent everywhere. He destroys people on the feet, and submits them on the mat. He is a definite finisher, he looks for the finish from the opening bell, like a bull out of the gate. Twelve of his 15 professional career victories have come by way of finish; three by TKO/KO and nine by submission. The one flaw in his game is his cardio. It has been improving but still isn’t great. He will be at a disadvantage in those regards, as he heads into this bout against a cardio machine in Kim. Fight Prediction: It is certainly a possibility that Silva could immediately starch Kim and put him away in the first round, as most expect him to. Seeing Condit finish Kim and Silva finish all of his opponents make people do a little MMA math and get those results, but I don’t think it’s quite that simple. For one, Silva is not going to submit Kim. It isn’t going to happen, Kim’s submission defense is too good, even for a slick jiu-jitsu pracitioner like Silva. Two, I think Kim’s questionable chin (and ribs, too, I guess) hold(s) up against Silva more often than not. Six out of ten times, I see this fight making it to the judges scorecards with Silva getting his first decision nod in the UFC, and in front of his fellow Brazilians. Gabe’s Pick: Erick Silva by Split-Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Erick Silva -245 as a leg for three teamer with Maia and Alcantara. More importantly, 2u on Silva wins in round one +190 and 2u on Silva by Dec. +365, as I think those are the two most likely outcomes in this match-up. Should Silva get the finish in round one, we will be up 1.8u, but should he win by decision, we will be up 5.3u.

Written by Gabe Killian

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