UFC 165 Bet: Dustin Kimura (-180) vs Mitch Gagnon (+140)

Mitch GagnonUFC 165 Date: September 21, 2013 Arena: Air Canada Centre City: Toronto, Ontario, Canada Bantamweight bout: Dustin Kimura (-180) vs Mitch Gagnon (+140) Fight Breakdown: The UFC 165 preliminary card on FOX Sports 1 will feature a bantamweight scrap between two finishers when Hawaiian Dustin Kimura takes on the Canadian Mitch Gagnon. Kimura is currently the favorite in this match-up at -180 ($180 to win $100), while the kickback on the underdog Gagnon is +140 ($100 to win $140) at Several Bookmakerss. DUSTIN KIMURA (10-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) will be making his second UFC appearance in enemy territory, as he travels from Honolulu to Toronto to take on the Canadian Mitch Gagnon. Kimura will without a doubt be at a hometown disadvantage. He will for the first time in his professional mixed martial arts career be fighting in front of an incredibly large and loud crowd that is against him. The Hawaiian is coming off a third round rear naked choke submission victory over Chico Camus at UFC 156 over seven months ago. He looks to keep his undefeated streak alive against Gagnon as he climbs his way up the UFC bantamweight ladder. Kimura is a very talented submission artist and most opponents should avoid going to the ground with him as it is dangerous territory. Kimura’s takedown defense is not great but that doesn’t matter because he is not at all afraid to go to the ground with his opponents. In fact, he feels very comfortable being in the bottom position, as he has a very active and dangerous guard. He is also very good with sweeps, transitions, and especially taking the backs of his opponents. Kimura’s striking is OK. He has a decent jab he likes to use. He possesses some power for a bantamweight and the fact that 20 percent of his career wins have come by way of knockout reflects that sentiment. Kimura is well conditioned and ready for a three round scrap; he will definitely have the superior cardio going into this match-up. MITCH GAGNON (9-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is making his third appearance inside the Octagon, coming off an impressive first-round rear-naked-choke victory over Walel Watson one year ago. Gagnon is an aggresive fighter who likes to move forward and finish the fight from the moment the bell rings. He is without a doubt a finisher, as 100 percent of his professional mixed martial arts career victories have come by way of submission. That might initially make you think that he is a grandmaster in jiu-jitsu, but that isn’t exactly the case. What Gagnon does well is hurt his opponents with his heavy hands and while they’re hurt, he secures chokes flawlessly. Throwing leather and locking up chokes are his two specialties and together they are a recipe for a disastrous loss. The Canadian has decent wrestling skills, as well. He works takedowns well and has powerful top control, although talented submission grapplers will likely be able to get reversals on him. Unfortunately for Gagnon, Dustin Kimura is a very talented submission artist, so he should be looking to avoid the ground at all costs. That said, Gagnon’s submission defense is not all that bad at least in the first couple minutes of the fight. All he is really good for is maybe four minutes, as he gasses very quickly due to his fast-paced aggressive attack. After he gasses, his submission defense drops significantly. Gagnon will without a doubt be at a cardio disadvantage going into this bout, not to mention a height and reach disadvantage. Fight Breakdown: I expect Gagnon to come out looking to knock Kimura out. Kimura will survive his early attack and as he starts to gas, he will lock up a submission and collect his paycheck. Gabe’s Pick: Dustin Kimura by Submission (rear-naked-choke, 4:40 round 1) to boo’s from the Canadian crowd. Gabe’s Recommended Play: Dustin Kimura -180 for a big play, also keep an eye out for Dustin Kimura by Submission

Written by Gabe Killian

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