On the main card of the stacked UFC 280 card, a key bantamweight bout goes down as number one contender Petr Yan takes on fan-favorite Sean O’Malley. The card takes place on Saturday, October 22 in Abu Dhabi, Dubai.
UFC 280 Opening Odds:
Petr Yan -250
Sean O’Malley +210
Current UFC 280 Odds (as of Sept. 26):
Petr Yan -380
Sean O’Malley +310
Yan and O’Malley’s recent fights
Petr Yan (16-3) is coming off a split decision loss to Aljamain Sterling for the bantamweight title after winning the interim belt by decision over Cory Sandhagen. He lost his title by DQ due to an illegal knee at UFC 259 against Sterling. In his UFC career, the Russian also holds notable wins over Jose Aldo – to win the vacant belt – Urijah Faber, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson. He’s also the former ACB bantamweight champion.
Sean O’Malley (15-1 and one No Contest) is coming off a No Contest due to an accident eye poke against Pedro Munhoz at UFC 276 in July. Before the NC, he was on a three-fight winning streak as he scored a first-round KO over Raulian Paiva, a TKO win over Kris Moutinho, and a third-round KO over Thomas Almeida. His lone loss is by first-round TKO to Marlon Vera while he also holds notable wins over Eddie Wineland, and Jose Alberto Quinonez.
Are the odds surprising?
I’m not surprised by the opening odds as I expected it to be above -200 and below -300 as although Yan is the number one contender, this is only a three-round fight and O’Malley is a fan favorite. With O’Malley having such a big fanbase, the oddsmakers couldn’t make ‘Suga’ too big of an underdog or they would get a ton of action on him.
How might the odds change?
As we have already seen, early action is on the former champ as the talk around this fight is Yan will smoke O’Malley as it’s too much of a step-up. However, Yan is primary a boxer while O’Malley will want to stand with he Russian and he can use his length to make it a boring fight and just jab his way to the win. I did expect early action to come in on Yan but as the closer we get to Oct. 22, I expect the public to put money on O’Malley as he has a ton of fans who haven’t been able to bet him as an underdog yet and he’s usually above a -300 favorite.
Yan will close as the favorite but I expect him to close around -325 to -350 as money will push O’Malley below a +300 underdog.