In the main event of UFC San Diego, a bantamweight bout headlines the card as Marlon Vera takes on Dominick Cruz. The card rakes place on Saturday, August 13 in San Diego, California.
UFC San Diego Opening Odds:
Marlon Vera -155
Dominick Cruz +135
Current UFC San Diego Odds (as of July 18):
Marlon Vera -190
Dominick Cruz +160
Vera and Cruz’s recent fights
Marlon Vera (21-7-1) is on a three-fight winning streak and coming off his first UFC main event where he beat Rob Font by decision back in April. Prior to that, he scored a third-round KO win over Frankie Edgar at UFC 268 after beating Davey Grant by decision. His last loss came back in December of 2020 as he lost a decision to Jose Aldo after beating Sean O’Malley by first-round TKO. In his UFC career, Vera is 13-6 with notable wins over Brian Kelleher, Brad Pickett, and Frankie Saenz.
Dominick Cruz (24-3) is on a two-fight winning streak as he beat Pedro Munhoz by decision at UFC 269 and beat Casey Kenney by split decision at UFC 259. Before the back-to-back wins, Cruz suffered a second-round TKO loss to Henry Cejudo for the bantamweight title in his return to the sport after dropping a decision to Cody Garbrandt to lose his title and injuries kept him from returning for two-and-a-half years. In his UFC career, Cruz holds notable wins over Urijah Faber, TJ Dillashaw, and Demetrious Johnson among others.
Are the odds surprising?
The opening odds weren’t surprising given the fact Marlon Vera has looked fantastic as of late while Cruz was dropped twice by Munhoz and nearly knocked out and barely edged out a decision over Kenney. However, Vera hasn’t gotten the respect from the oddsmakers as he was the betting underdog to Font and only a slight favorite over Edgar.
How might the odds change?
Already, money has come in on Vera to inflate the line to -190 and I do think money will continue to come in on Vera and push him above -200. Yet, closer to the event, money will likely come back in on Cruz as he is a big name and if you can get +170 to +175 the value would be on him. Ultimately, I think the line closes very similar to this current line as Vera will be around the -185 to -200 favorite come fight night.