In the co-main event of UFC 270 Brandon Moreno is set to defend his flyweight belt for the first time in his trilogy bout against Deiveson Figueredo. The card goes down on Saturday, January 22 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
UFC 270 Opening Odds:
Brandon Moreno -185
Deiveson Figueiredo +155
UFC 270 Current Odds (As of Dec. 22)
Brandon Moreno -165
Deiveson Figueiredo +145
Moreno and Figueiredo’s recent fights
Brandon Moreno (19-5-2) is coming off the back-to-back fights with Figueiredo and last time out, became the new flyweight champion after submitting the Brazilian at UFC 263 in June. Prior to that, he fought the Brazilian to a draw in the main event of UFC 256 which was one of the best fights in 2020. He’s currently on a seven-fight unbeaten streak with wins over Brandon Royval, Jussier Formiga, Kai Kara-France, and Maikel Perez in LFA to win the belt while also having a draw to Askar Askarov during his unbeaten run.
Deiveson Figueiredo (20-2-1), lost his belt last time out to Moreno as he suffered the submission loss after retaining the belt at UFC 256 with the draw to the Mexican. He defended his belt once with a first-round submission win over Alex Perez at UFC 255. The Brazilian won the vacant flyweight belt with a first-round submission over Joseph Benavidez and knocking out Benavidez in February of 2020 but missed weight so the fight was still vacant. In career, he also holds notable wins over Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott.
Are the odds surprising?
Although the second fight was one-sided I was surprised to see Moreno open at -185 as to me, this fight is around a pick’em. The first time they fought, Figueiredo was a -320 favorite with Moreno being the +260 underdog. Had the Brazilian not gotten a point deducted he would’ve won the fight.
In the second fight, Figueiredo was a -200 favorite while Moreno was a +170, so to see the odds basically flip on one outcome is surprising. Figueiredo also had a terrible weight cut so if he gets it right at UFC 270 then perhaps he can reclaim his belt.
How might the odds change?
I do think money will come in on Figueiredo at plus-money as he usually is a sizeable favorite. He has been in Arizona working with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready for months now which will no doubt help him with his grappling and helping to keep his weight down.
To me, this should be a slight lean to Moreno, like -130, so I do expect money to come in on Figueuredo as he still has the one-punch KO power at flyweight, and UFC 263 might have been his worse performance of his career so many bettors will likely expect him to bounce back.
