A massive welterweight scrap between Stephen Thompson and Gilbert Burns serves as the co-main event of UFC 264 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 10.
If Thompson wins, he could likely earn a title shot against Kamaru Usman. Burns, meanwhile, is looking to get back on track after losing his last fight for the belt.
UFC 264 Opening Odds:
Stephen Thompson +135
Gilbert Burns -155
Current UFC 264 Odds (June 28):
Stephen Thompson -150
Gilbert Burns +120
Thompson and Burns’ recent fights
Stephen Thompson (16-4-1) is riding back-to-back wins against rising contenders as he earned decision wins over Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. Prior to that, he suffered an upset KO loss to Anthony Pettis after losing a controversial decision to Darren Till. He has fought for welterweight gold twice fighting Tyron Woodley to a draw and losing a majority decision. Thompson holds notable wins over Rory MacDonald, Jorge Masvidal, Johny Hendricks, and Robert Whittaker among others.
Gilbert Burns (19-4), meanwhile, is coming off a TKO loss to Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title. It was his first loss at welterweight since he moved up in 2019. Prior to the loss, he dominated Tyron Woodley to win a decision, KO’d Demian Maia and beat Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko by decision. The Brazilian holds notable wins over Alex Oliveira, Christos Giagos, and Olivier Aubin-Mercier.
Are the odds surprising?
I was surprised to see Burns open as the favorite and immediately the public reversed the line. Thompson is arguably the best striker at welterweight and has really good takedown defence which is where Burns will need to take the fight to win.
Burns does have the jiu-jitsu to be able to submit Thompson, yet we saw him get knocked out in February. He’s also someone who still hasn’t gotten a ton of respect as he was above +200 against Usman and was an underdog to Kunchenko and a pick’em against Nelson. He was also a dog against Woodley.
How might the odds change?
I do think the odds will continue to go in Thompson’s way. We have seen the public back Thompson and only at -150, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be around -180 by the time fight night rolls around.
