Free UFC Fight Night 28 Picks: Joseph Benavidez (-525) vs. Jussier Formiga (+450)

Joseph Benavidez UFC Fight Night 28 Belo Horizonte, Brazil Wednesday, September 4, 2013 Flyweight bout (three rounds): Joseph Benavidez (-525) vs. Jussier Formiga (+450) Fight Breakdown: The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 28 is a three-round flyweight bout between Jussier Da Silva. Benavidez is a -525 favorite (bet $525 to win $100) while Jussier Formiga is a +450 underdog (bet $100 to win $450) at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Benavidez (18-3) is one of the top-three flyweights in the world who is known for his incredible athleticism, superb wrestling and knockout power. The 29-year-old lost a razor-close decision to UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson at UFC 152 but since then has bounced back with a decision win over Ian McCall and a TKO win over Darren Uyenoyama. Hungry to get another crack at the belt, Benavidez could jump right back into that No. 1 contender spot in the division with a big finish over Formiga, and with Duane “Bang” Ludwig having taken his striking to another level, a knockout seems very likely. Formiga (25-2) is one of the best grapplers in the division. The 28-year-old has fought twice in the UFC, first losing via TKO to John Dodson at UFC on FX 5 and then bouncing back with a decision win over Chris Cariaso at UFC on FX 8. Formiga definitely has talent and he has a lot of experience against top-shelf flyweights but he’s very average on the feet and he also tends to gas in fights. Going up against a guy known for his cardio and for his power like Benavidez, this spells major trouble, and although Formiga will have the home-field edge in his native Brazil, it likely won’t be enough to get him the W here. Fight Prediction: I see Formiga going for takedowns early but Benavidez easily stuffing/side-stepping them and countering Formiga with some big strikes. Formiga will start to get frustrated because he can’t get the fight to the ground and, after he starts to tire, he’ll let his guard down and Benavidez will hit him very hard to the body and head for a second-round TKO finish. Adam’s Pick: Benavidez via TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I love Benavidez in this fight but the moneyline of -525 is out of betting range so I’d look to attack this fight with props instead. Instead, I’d look to make a straight bet on “the fight does not go the distance” at -130 as my main play here and also throw Benavidez by TKO at +165 into a prop round robin.

Written by Adam Martin.

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