UFC Fight Night 27 Bet: Abel Trujillo (-120) vs Roger Bowling (+100)

Lightweight bout: Abel Trujillo (-120) vs Roger Bowling (+100) Fight Breakdown: The Facebook prelims for UFC Fight Night 27 features a lightweight scrap between Blackzilians team member Abel Trujillo and Strikeforce veteran Roger Bowling. The fight odds are currently at a near coin flip, with Trujillo being -120 ($120 to win $100) and Bowling being +100 ($100 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. Abel Trujillo (10-5 MMA, 1-1 UFC) makes his third trip to the Octagon following a Unanimous Decision loss to top lightweight contender Khabib Nurmagomedov, a fight in which he was taken down for a UFC record of 21 times. Trujillo is a decent wrestler who loves to throw leather. He likes taking opponents down and beating them up in a merciless ground and pound attack. He trains at the Blackzilians camp in Florida with notable fighters Michael Johnson, Jorge Santiago, Miguel Torres, and Eddie Alvarez. Trujillo has very good cardio and will be game for a three round war; he will most definitely have the cardio advantage going into this bout. His game-plan should be to immediately take Roger Bowling down in the start of the first round and wear him down, rinse, and repeat, round after round until he can find a finish or secure a Decision. Roger Bowling (11-4 MMA, 0-1 UFC) returns to the Octagon for the second time after suffering a second round knockout to Anthony Njokuani at UFC on FOX 7 only four months ago. That bout was his first in the lightweight division, as he was dropping down from welterweight. He was doing well against Njokuani in the first round but got caught in the second. Roger Bowling is a very strong fighter, he has heavy punches and loves to put opponents away with them. His wrestling is also good, as he uses it to take opponents down and get in a ground and pound position. Bowling likes to do damage from the guard. He looks to beat opponents up with his fists, regardless if they’re on the feet or if he’s got them on the ground. He does not have a good chin, so anybody with power always has a chance to put his lights out. His cardio is also not the greatest, especially at 155 pounds. I expect him to be gassed in the third round. I think his best chance at a win is to score a knockout in under 1.5 rounds, even though I could see him winning the first two rounds and earning a 29-28 across the judges scorecards. Fight Prediction: Bowling has a weak chin and poor cardio, but I still like his chances of going all three rounds, as long as he doesn’t knock Trujillo out early on. While Bowling has a weak chin, Trujillo is not the type of fighter who puts opponents away on the feet. He prefers to finish opponents by ground and pound. I think Bowling’s chin will hold up in such a situation and he isn’t a big quitter, so I think he will fight through adversity rather than covering up and hoping the ref steps in. Trujillo needs to avoid getting caught with Bowling’s heavy hooks and overhands. He needs to try to tire out Bowling in the first round and put the pressure on in the second and third. Trujillo’s cardio will be his biggest advantage in this fight and he should use it to his advantage to secure a victory here. Gabe’s Pick: Roger Bowling by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds -190 for 1u and for some crazy reason, I might lay a very tiny (and likely losing) stab on this fight being a Draw

Written by Gabe Killian

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