UFC 245: Amanda Nunes vs. Germaine De Randamie Betting Prediction

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On any other card, this title fight between Amanda Nunes and Germaine De Randamie would surely be the headliner. While this rematch between two of the world’s best female fighters hasn’t attracted as much attention as the top two fights on the card, I find this bout highly intriguing from a betting perspective.

Amanda Nunes

In her earlier career, Amanda Nunes was somewhat of a frontrunner. If opponents could weather the first round onslaught, Nunes would typically fade and become vulnerable. Her 2014 contest with Cat Zingano was a good example of this. In addition to making vast technical strides, Nunes has also learned to pace herself better in recent years. This could also be due to overcoming chronic sinusitis, which she dealt with in the past.

On the feet, the Brazilian champion throws with venom. This isn’t to say she lacks technique, but she attacks like someone who is very aware she can end a fight with a single blow. I encourage you to watch some of her fights in slow motion and observe her facial expressions as she’s delivering power punches. This lady absolutely loves knocking people out!

Nunes is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and a brown belt in judo. As we saw in the original contest, she’ll be looking to put the Dutch kickboxer on her back at the earliest opportunity.

Germaine De Randamie

Standing 5’9 with a 71-inch reach, De Randamie has an incredible frame for a bantamweight striker. Not only is she long in the limb, she has a great understanding of distance and throws shots down the pipe with surgical precision. The Dutch fighter leans heavy on her lead leg, which could be a target for her opponent, but overall I believe she is the more technical striker. Of course, a technical advantage may prove to be worthless when your adversary hits like a freight train – but I envision De Randamie winning exchanges on the feet until she gets caught with a haymaker. 

De Randamie didn’t look very competent off her back in the original contest and we have no idea whether she’s improved her ground game since then. However, her takedown defense has most definitely improved and if she’s able to keep this one standing, we’re in for an amazing kickboxing match.

Who Wins?

As far as picking an outright winner, you have to side with Amanda Nunes. She’s been on a roll lately, destroying all competitors in emphatic fashion. With that being said, De Randamie should be a much stiffer test than the likes of Cyborg (who grossly underperformed against Nunes) and Holly Holm (who in my humble opinion, is a bit overrated).

De Randamie is taller, longer, more technically sound on the feet and could have the takedown defense to keep the fight upright. Nunes is such a natural fighter that she may even relish not being able to land takedowns, which would play into the hands of De Randamie.

Personally, I threw half a unit on De Randamie a few days ago at +250. This price carries an implied probability of 28.6%, which I feel is disrespectfully low for an elite striker with a clear path to victory. I would personally line De Randamie somewhere around +150, so I still think there is decent value while her price stays north of +200. Amanda Nunes may very well win, but you’ll be sweating bullets if you’ve paid -300 and it looks like a pure kickboxing affair heading into the second round.

Pick: Germaine De Randamie +235

Check out my other bets for UFC 245.

Written by Pig Lord

Ruthless MMA profiteer. Writer for @MMAOddsbreaker and my own blog. piglordmma.com/newsletter

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