UFC Fight Night 26 Bet: Matt Brown (-165) vs Mike Pyle (+145)

Middleweight bout: Matt Brown (-165) vs Mike Pyle (+145) Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight Night 26 main card features a classic rock ’em, sock ’em type of scrap between crafty Octagon veterans Matt Brown and Mike Pyle. Brown is currently the favorite at -165 ($165 to win $100) with the return on the underdog Pyle being +145 ($100 to win $145) at Several Bookmakerss. Matt Brown (17-11 MMA, 10-5 UFC) is coming off an impressive second round TKO victory over highly touted prospect Jordan Mein and looks to make it six wins in a row this Saturday night against Mike Pyle. Brown is a resilient fighter who fights for the finish. He loves hurting opponents and finding the knockout. He holds a brown belt in judo and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, so he is well versed on the ground. He is very comfortable there, which explains why he often isn’t afraid to be taken down. Basically, to use the cliche, Matt Brown is good in every area but not exactly excellent in any area. His striking is nothing to write home about and neither is his ground game. His five fight winning streak and main event slot might have him focused enough to have his cardio in check, but cardio has generally been the weak point for Matt Brown. Luckily for him, most of his opponents have had much worse cardio! Mike Pyle (25-8 MMA, 8-3 UFC) looks to build on a four fight winning streak as he steps into the Octagon for the twelfth time. Pyle is a good striker and an even better grappler. His ground game is very impressive, both offensively and defensively. In the striking department, he knows how to implement his muay thai really well, as he has been very effective with his knees and elbows in recent bouts. He works very well inside the clinch, and has an excellent muay thai clinch. Pyle will be at a two inch reach disadvantage in this match-up but I believe he is the better striker; more so, he is the better grappler. Pyle’s questionable chin has had him in trouble many times, and although I think his recovery is great, I think it would be wise of him to avoid the striking and make this a grappling match-up, as Matt Brown has poor submission defense and I could easily see Pyle catching him with something. Even if he doesn’t find a submission, I think he could control Brown on the mat. If he keeps it on the feet, he could score a KO or get put away himself; when he gets hurt, he walks straight backwards rather than circling, and against a fighter like Matt Brown, that could be a recipe for disaster. Fight Prediction: This is the type of welterweight scrap that is likely to produce a knockout. I think both fighters could finish each other but I think Pyle finishes Brown more often than Brown finishes Pyle. Also, if it goes to the scorecards, I think Pyle takes the nod more often than not. So far, I’ve only heard of people backing Matt Brown in this match-up. Everybody seems to be much more impressed with his current five fight winning streak than I am. I just see it as wins over cans and gassed-out fighters. These guys know each other and have spent a great deal of time sparring together before. Pyle is the more experienced and more polished fighter and I think he has the edge wherever the fight goes. Gabe’s Pick: Mike Pyle by Submission (guillotine choke, 1:43 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Mike Pyle +145 — I think he should be -160 so I see enough value in this line to recommend a small-to-moderate play. — The Pyle by Decision prop will likely be worth a bet, too, as I expect it to be anywhere between +350 and +750. There will definitely be value there.

Written by Gabe Killian

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