If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K to 1st place. That is the best one to chase in my opinion. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I won’t have many LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week – Song Yadong ($9,100)
I think Song Yadong might be the best play on the card this weekend and there are 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I think this is a fight the UFC is wanting him to win in his home country. I think in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you can make a case to fade him because of his ownership in GPPs, but in cash games we don’t care about ownership. I think this is a good spot to lock in a win and maybe ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins that we can afford. More often than not 4 wins gets the job done in cash games.
GPP play of the week – Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card at -400. There is also value on Hu Yaozong with him being $600 cheaper and the betting line being almost even. Usually when there is value like that on an underdog it makes them one of the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of these guys are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed with what I have seen from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense this weekend in a fight that should not go all 3-rounds. If either of these guys get an early finish they will likely be on the winning lineup. I am guessing Coulter will be the lower owned guy of the two and that is what makes him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to target this week for UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in 2 underdogs when I think almost every favorite will get a win. I think the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he does have a clear path to victory and he has already won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power to be able to KO anybody on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he likely ends up on the 1st place lineup, especially if it is an early KO. In the first fight between these two guys Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty quickly each time. If he is able to get up like that again here, then I don’t see any way Blaydes will have the cardio to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier guy on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for long periods of time. I think Ngannou is live for an upset here but on a card, I don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside.
Fade of the week – Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t like targeting any of these ladies in the $9k range. I think they should all get wins, but I don’t see any of them getting 10x their salary. For Mueller, she would need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and I think she has to get a finish to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA record and only 1 of those wins didn’t go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her 1 UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she will not be winning anybody a tournament. I also think Zhang and Xiaonan have better chances of winning than Mueller does so that is why I chose her over those two as my fade of the week. I won’t be making a lot of lineups this week but if I was making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on zero of them.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: