If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in the mile-high city. DraftKings has lowered their contest sizes a lot for this card, so I won’t be playing a ton of GPPs this week. I am going to look to build the bankroll with cash games, then I will make my usual ~20 lineups and to chase the big prize of the week. The main tourney is an $8 entry and pays $15k to 1st. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Denver as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week – Davi Ramos ($9,500)
This looks like the free square of the week. This is a terrible matchup for John Gunther and the betting line agrees with Ramos being a -935 favorite. He is by far the biggest favorite on the card and this seems like we can lock in ~100-points in this spot. Ramos will be one of the highest owned fighters in GPPs, so I think we can fade him there to be contrarian. However, he is a lock for my cash game LU. I don’t care about ownership in cash games, so I just like getting in good plays with a high floor. Pro tip — If you do have the same lineup in a H2H game, you can email DK support and they will refund those games so that you don’t lose the rake.
GPP play of the week – Luis Pena ($9,300)
Earlier in the week we saw Pena with betting odds around -300, and as I write this he is down to -160. I expect this to make Trizano one of the chalkier underdogs of the week and now Pena should be low owned in tournaments. I am still picking him to win this fight and I think he could get a finish. He scored 117 DK points in his UFC debut, and if we could get anything near that at low ownership this week then we could win a GPP. Pena’s ITD odds are +110 so that is pretty good for a guy with a high ceiling who most people won’t be on. Ramos is going to get most of the ownership in this top range and now Pena has the worst value on the card with his $9.3k salary, so I think he is a great GPP pivot.
Underdog play of the week – Yair Rodriguez ($7,700)
Yair Rodriguez is $800 cheaper than The Korean Zombie here but he is a slight betting favorite currently. I love that value and I think it makes Yair a great play in all formats. The line for FDGTD is -285 and we have 5-rounds to work with where we can rack up DK points. Yair has a +160 ITD line so if we can get a finish from him at $7.7k, or even a high scoring 5-round fight, then he is likely going to be on the winning LU at that price tag. I think this is a great fight to target overall in tournaments and one you could go all-in on if you are making multiple lineups, but Yair is the preferred play if you are just making 1 lineup. We have to get underdogs on our roster and this is probably the best one on the card, on paper anyways.
Fade of the week – Beniel Dariush ($8,700)
Dariush didn’t make any of my lineups on my first build and I think it will stay that way. I like a lot of these high-priced favorites this week and I would rather just pay up for them, so Dariush didn’t make my player pool for that reason. I think Thiago Moises is a legit prospect and Dariush has been on a skid lately going 0-2-1 in his last 3 fights, with two of those losses being knockouts. I think he is a risky play this week and he typically doesn’t score highly in wins so that is what is making Dariush my fade of the week for UFC Denver.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: