UFC 230 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC 230 takes place Saturday, November 3 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the full odds for the card, and here they are.

UFC 230 Opening Odds

Daniel Cormier -900
Derrick Lewis +500

Chris Weidman -125
Ronaldo Souza -105

David Branch -300
Jarred Cannonier +220

Karl Roberson -185
Jack Marshman +145

Israel Adesanya -260
Derek Brunson +180

Jason Knight -230
Jordan Rinaldi +170

Sijara Eubanks -380
Roxanne Modafferi +260

Julio Arce -165
Sheymon Moraes +125

Lyman Good -350
Ben Saunders +250

Lando Vannata -285
Matt Frevola +205

Shane Burgos -300
Kurt Holobaugh +220

Brian Kelleher -185
Montel Jackson +145

Adam Wieczorek -350
Marcos Rogerio de Lima +250

And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC 230 opening odds:

– After lots of changes to the card, the final main event (knock on wood) sees DC look to defend the heavyweight title against Lewis. DC opened as a massive favorite, and it’s hard to say he doesn’t deserve it considering he’s a double champion in the UFC and just knocked out Stipe Miocic. But how do you bet against Lewis at these kind of odds? Lewis is 9-1 in his last 10 fights and has proven he has fight-ending power even when he’s down huge on the scorecards. At these odds, it’s very tempting to take a punt on Lewis, though it may be better to just keep an eye on the Lewis by TKO prop as that’s the only way he’ll win this fight. I just think the opening odds are too lopsided for a heavyweight bout.

– I love the co-main event between Weidman and Souza, and the odds look to be dead on as I had it pegged as a Pick ’em fight. I guess the oddsmakers had to favor Weidman just slightly because he actually beat Kelvin Gastelum in his last fight while Souza lost, but I think it’s a really close on that could go either way. My gut is telling me Souza can win this fight, and if he gets to a nice plus-money number I’ll take a stab.

– There’s a couple fights on the main card that look like mismatches. Branch should be able to get by Cannonier rather easily, and I favor Adesanya quite a bit over Brunson too. Not surprisingly, both guys are solid favorites, and for the parlay bettors these are two guys to consider.

– On the preliminary card, I’ve got my eye on Arce to beat Moraes. I’m surprised how low the books opened Arce at, as I consider him a premier young featherweight talent and favor him quite heavily here. Not surprisingly, the odds on Arce have ballooned as the early bettors scooped up a nice line on a guy who should have been a much bigger favorite.

– On the other end of the spectrum, the books correctly opened up Kelleher as a favorite over Jackson but the early action is all over Jackson. So for a dog, I’ve got my eye on Kelleher. I think he’s the superior fighter with more experience in the UFC, and I’m really surprised that so much early action came the other way as I believe Kelleher should be a significant favorite here.


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Written by Adam Martin.

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