UFC Fight Night 138 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC Fight Night 138 takes place Saturday, October 27 at Moncton Events Center in Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the full card odds for the event, and here they are.

UFC Fight Night 138 Opening Odds

Volkan Oezdemir -210
Anthony Smith +160

Michael Johnson -300
Artem Lobov +220

Misha Cirkunov -265
Pat Cummins +185

Gian Villante -300
Ed Herman +220

Alex Garcia -175
Court McGee +135

Andre Soukhamthath -245
Jonathan Martinez +175

Nordine Taleb -130
Sean Strickland -110

Nasrat Haqparast -350
Thibault Gouti +250

Calvin Kattar -245
Chris Fishgold +175

Sarah Moras -285
Talita Bernardo +205

Don Madge -305
Te Edwards +225

Arjan Bhullar -175
Marcelo Golm +135

Stevie Ray -215
Jessin Ayari +165

And here are my initial thoughts on the odds:

– I love the main even between Oezdemir and Smith as stylistically it’s a banger, but boy oh boy is it a tough one to pick. Oezdemir rocketed up the light heavyweight rankings with three straight top-10 wins to open his UFC career but hasn’t fought since a TKO loss to Daniel Cormier earlier this year. Smith, meanwhile, has knocked out Rashad Evans and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in back-to-back fights since moving up to 205lbs. I’m still not totally sold on Smith based on beating two older veterans so at this point I lean towards Oezdemir to get his hand raised, but if the line gets crazy for some reason I would take a stab at the dog.

– The co-main event, meanwhile, is an easy one to pick. Johnson looked pretty good in his decision win over Andre Fili his last fight around, bouncing back nicely after losing to Darren Elkins in his featherweight debut. Lobov, on the other hand, is just 2-4 in the UFC overall and is coming into this fight right out of the UFC 229 post-event melee so I wonder where his head is at right now. I like Johnson a lot in this fight, but Lobov’s toughness may help him hang around to a decision.

– For a dog pick, I’m looking at Golm to beat Bhullar. Golm is 1-1 in the UFC and losing a decision to Tim Johnson isn’t that bad. Bhullar is also 1-1 in the UFC but he is coming off of a submission loss to Adam Wieczorek via omoplata which is a huge red flag. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bhullar was able to grind out a decision but I’d have to lean towards Golm at dog money here.

– I’d also take a look at Bernardo as a dog. I have never been impressed with Moras and though she’s won a couple fights in the UFC I think she’s good fade material as a betting favorite. Bernardo needs to get on track in the UFC but I have a bit more faith in her than the line here suggests. At these odds this fight is a dog-or-pass situation in my opinion, though I wouldn’t go crazy on it.

– The opening odds on the Madge vs. Edwards fight look to be a misprint as the line completely flipped immediately after opening. So don’t worry, you didn’t miss out on any value here, as Edwards deserved to be a huge favorite the whole time.


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Written by Adam Martin.

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