KSW 45: Wager Prado vs. Max Nunes Betting Prediction

For those looking for betting opportunities outside of UFC 229 this weekend, KSW 45 is hosting a stacked card in London, England. Lines are available at a few Euro books. Former UFC veteran, Wagner Prado, has been performing well on the regional circuit. He takes on Swedish fighter, Max “Power” Nunes – who fights out of the acclaimed All Stars Training Center.

Will Prado’s Knockout Rampage Continue?

Wagner Prado’s two UFC fights did not go well, but he’s looked great since then. His lone loss came against an excellent fighter in Magomed Ankalaev – every other opponent was finished by knockout. Training muay thai since a teenager, Prado loves to strike and has ferocious power in his hands. Although he loads up and get reckless at times, he puts beautiful combinations together when he wants to. At 6’1, he’s not the biggest light heavyweight. Fortunately, he has a good understanding of distance and is effective at cutting off the octagon. Against Johnny Walker, a 6’5 fighter that is now in the UFC, his opponent made every attempt to fight long. Despite the lateral movement and kicking attacks of Walker, Prado eventually hunted him down and finished him on the mat.

In fact, several of Prado’s recent victories have come by way of ground strikes, and it’s amazing he can generate so much power at short range. In his KSW debut against Chris Fields, Prado immediately closed the distance, took his opponent down and pulverized him on the gound. This doesn’t bode well for Max Nunes.

How Does Nunes Approach This Fight?

Standing 6’3, Nunes will have the size and reach advantage. I anticipate the Swede will be on his bicycle, looking to pepper his opponent with an array of kicks from the outside. Although he’s a bit tentative at times, he does throw a nice straight right. 

Nunes is not a bad grappler either, and has several submission victories on his record (albeit earlier in his career). He obviously doesn’t want to be on his back against a ground striking specialist like Prado, but he might try to wrestle the Brazilian to the mat and work from top position. Basically, Nunes has to do anything he can to avoid exchanging at boxing range with his opponent. Unfortunately, Nunes doesn’t sit down on his strikes. This allowed a much smaller opponent, Maxim Futin, to close the distance, box him up and take him down. Although he rallied to defeat Futin by doctor’s stoppage in the third, he was two rounds down at that point.

The biggest problem for Nunes is his chin. His last two KO losses against Batraz Agnaev and Luke Barnatt were appalling. Barnatt is not a renowned power puncher, yet he still left Nunes astral projecting on the canvas – what is someone like Prado going to do with him?

Who Wins?

Put simply, Wagner Prado hits extremely hard and Max Nunes cannot sustain damage. While the Swedish fighter may have success fighting long or grappling initially, his margin for error is tiny. Sooner or later I believe Prado will find that chin and when he does, Nunes is going to sleep.

Pick: Wagner Prado by KO -152

Check out my other KSW 45 betting predictions.

Editor’s Note: Max Nunes no-showed the event and was removed from the card. Prado will now fight Lukasz Parobiec on short notice.

Written by Pig Lord

Ruthless MMA profiteer. Writer for @MMAOddsbreaker and my own blog. piglordmma.com/newsletter

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