UFC Fight Night 135 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC Fight Night 135 takes place Saturday, August 25 at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the full card, and here they are.

UFC Fight Night 135 Opening Odds

Justin Gaethje -115
James Vick -115

Michael Johnson -165
Andre Fili +125

Angela Hill -175
Cortney Casey +135

Bryan Barberena -285
Jake Ellenberger +205

Markus Perez -160
Andrew Sanchez +120

Eryk Anders -280
Tim Williams +200

Warlley Alves -230
James Krause +170

Iuri Alcantara -175
Cory Sandhagen +135

Deiveson Figueiredo -135
John Moraga -105

Rani Yahya -215
Luke Sanders +165

Joanne Calderwood -185
Kalindra Faria +145

Drew Dober -175
Jon Tuck +135

Mickey Gall -245
George Sullivan +175

And here are my initial thoughts on these odds:

– I already did a longer version on my thoughts about the main event between Gaethje and Vick, and you can find that article here.

– For the co-main event, I’m liking the dog in Fili over the favorite in Johnson, who has really been struggling as of late. Johnson (17-13) is just way too inconsistent for my liking. He’s lost five of his last six fights and he looked really bad in his featherweight debut against Darren Elkins. Yes, he has the potential for a big KO like when he fought Dustin Poirier, but since that fight two years ago Johnson has looked like a shell of his former self. It’s possible the beatdowns he took against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje have really affected him. Fili (18-5) has also been inconsistent in the UFC but he’s finally on a roll with a two-fight win streak and victories in three of his last four fights. I have to fade Johnson and given that Fili is the dog, there’s some value on him here.

– The oddsmakers completely blew the line for Anders vs. Williams, as Anders only opened as a solid favorite and yet he’s up to nearly -1000 now at some books. That -280 opener was a gift. Anders (10-1) lost a close split decision to Lyoto Machida his last time out but otherwise is undefeated in MMA and one of the best prospects in the middlewight division. Williams (15-4) was knocked out in his UFC debut and he’s a guy who has been finished many times. Expect Anders to do the same to him in this fight.

– Another line the oddsmakers flubbed on was Alcantara vs. Sandhagen, as the public has completely reversed things now with Sandhagen as a sizeable favorite. Alcantara (36-9, 1 NC) has a lot of experience and he’s a dangerous fighter, but he has a lot of holes in his game and he’s hard to trust. Sandhagen (8-1) looked great in his UFC debut picking up a KO win and overall is a very solid prospect at 135lbs. Even though he’s making his bantamweight debut, I still think you have to favor the youngster here.

– Overall, this looks like a card where quite a bit of chalk is going to cash. There are a few spots where the dog could have a chance but overall it looks like there’s going to be a lot of favorites winning Saturday. This might be a good card to put some parlays together.

Written by Adam Martin.

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