Big Marley’s UFC on Fox 30 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This weekend we have a free Card on big FOX. We are finally getting the rematch with Dustin Poirier vs Eddie Alvarez after their first fight ended in a No Contest. These are two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC and we should see an awesome fight here. DraftKings has some decent contests out for this card and I was surprised to see a $20k top prize in their main tournament. That is what I will personally be chasing and I will be making a bunch of LUs to throw into that. Here are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:

Cash Game play of the week – Stack (Dustin Poirier $8,800 AND Eddie Alvarez $7,400)

This is an easy way to start my cash LU this week and I expect this to be very popular in all cash game formats. These two were on pace for a high scoring fight in their first fight and I think we have an easy 100+ between the two of them here. I think the winner of this fight will score over 100 points themselves and then we add in all the sig strikes and other points from the loser as well. But we guarantee ourselves the win. The only way this fight doesn’t score more than 100 DK points is somebody gets kneed in the head illegal and the fight is stopped short….

GPP play of the week – Hakeem Dawodu ($9,400)

I think this matchup was set up to get Dawodu a win. I also think Islam Makhachev, who is $200 more, will be very highly owned and this could be a good pivot off him to differentiate your LU a bit. I do think Dawodu will gain some decent ownership as well but I think he is a solid GPP play this week. I believe the most likely outcome in this fight is Dawodu getting a (T)KO win. He should pay off his $9.4k salary if that is the case, especially if it is early. He is a very solid striker and we didn’t get to see that in his UFC debut where he was upset very early in the fight. This is the perfect match for him to showcase his striking and why there was so much hype behind him going into his debut. I think we could see a 1st round KO here and that makes Hakeem Dawodu my GPP play of the week.

Underdog play of the week – Ion Cutelaba ($7,600)

The main reason Cutelaba is my underdog play of the week is because there is no way he isn’t scoring at least 10x if he is able to get the win. He has big power and could get a 1st round KO here and score over 100 DK points. If he does that with his cheap salary of $7.6k he will certainly be in the winning lineup. This is a solid fight to target both sides but points per salary wise, Cutelaba has one of the higher ceilings on the card. I do not see this fight going to decision and the winner should score highly. I think if you are making multiple lineups this weekend you should definitely have exposure to Cutelaba.

Fade of the week – Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)

I am fading a few fighters this week personally, but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t think she can win, because she for sure can. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I think we would need a finish from her in this fight to get 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to happen. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points. That wouldn’t be enough here to put her in the winning lineup at her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a win it shouldn’t hurt much.

If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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