Light Heavyweight bout: Ednaldo Oliveira (-140) vs Francimar Barroso (+120) Fight Breakdown: The Facebook portion of the UFC 163 preliminary card features a match-up between two native Brazilians as Ednaldo Oliveira makes his light heavyweight debut against Team Nova Uniao’s Francimar “Badao” Barroso. Currently, Oliveira is the slight favorite at -140 ($140 to win $100) while the return on the slight underdog Barroso is +120 ($100 to win $120) at Several Bookmakerss. Ednaldo Oliveira (13-1-1-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) drops from heavyweight to light heavyweight after taking a first round submission loss against Gabriel Gonzaga in his UFC debut. He was doing well in the fight for the first minute or so until he got taken down and very easily submitted. I was surprised to see a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt display such poor submission defense. Gonzaga got that choke way too easily. Oliveira is coming off a long layoff and may have some ring rust. While I have not seen him be impressive on the ground in any videos of him I’ve watched, he does possess some boxing and Muay Thai skills. His striking is technical. He’s a good counter-striker with decent striking defense. Ednaldo Oliveira trains with Junior Dos Santos and the Nogeuiras, though when you see him fight, it doesn’t show that he’s training with the elite of the sport. Francimar “Badao” Barroso (15-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his long awaited Octagon debut at the HSBC Arena in his hometown of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on short notice, as he replaces an injured Robert Drysdale. Barroso has a solid base. He has a great ground game, as he does damage with intense ground and pound and is a threat with his submissions. He is great off his back, as well. He takes chances; gives up positions as he goes for finishes. He is also very good at transitioning on the ground, from one submission attempt to another. He has excellent stand-up, brutal striking, and great takedowns. All of this needs to be taken with a grain of salt, though, as he’s never faced top, or even mid-level competition. All his wins have come against cans. That said, I don’t think Oliveira is a step up in competition. Fight Prediction: Barroso puts the pressure on Oliveira until he finds a finish. I think Barosso is a beast and belongs in the UFC, whereas Oliveira is a can who belongs nowhere near the organization. Barroso’s cardio is a concern but the fight likely won’t last long enough for us to know for sure. Gabe’s Pick: Francimar Barroso by Submission (rear-naked-choke, 1:45 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Francimar Barosso +120 — I think he should be a -280 favorite in this match-up, so considering the value, I am recommending a max bet.