Big Marley’s UFC Fight Night 131 DraftKings Fantasy Breakdown

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

This week, we have a Friday night card in Utica, New York. Currently, we have 13 fights on this card which is a good number for fewer ties on DraftKings, so let’s hope all 13 can stay and maybe we can get a solo $15k winner in the big DK tournament. The other contests on this slate have small prize pools so I will likely go heavier on cash games and build my bankroll for UFC 225. I will likely play 10-20 GPP lineups in the $8 tourney hoping to hit big there, but I expect some big prize pools next weekend. Here are a few plays I like, and my fade of the week for UFN 131:

Cash Game play of the week – Stack, Jimmie Rivera ($8,200) AND Marlon Moraes ($8,000)

The main event this week, with Rivera and Moraes, should be an awesome fight with a lot of action. Plus, it is set for 5 rounds so we could get an extra 2 rounds to work with in this fight. If we use both fighters in our cash games, we are guaranteed the winner and their winning bonus along with all the points they can both add up throughout the fight. I could see both fighters being dropped and this fight going to a decision with a mix of striking and grappling, and if that happens this fight will score highly as whole. I like locking in that win and I see this fight scoring at least ~120 points with the two fighters, and that is just fine with me in my cash games. If I hit my other spots, that guaranteed win gives me a high floor and that is what I want in my cash games since I only need to finish in the top half of the field to cash.

GPP play of the week – Gregor Gillespie ($9,500)

Gregor is the safest play on the card in my opinion and he has the highest ceiling as well. Gregor has not scored less than 100 DK points in any of his UFC appearances, and if he gets a win here I don’t see that changing. The wrestling and high pace he brings to the table is exactly what we want in DraftKings. Gregor has a solid striking game and he is one of the best wrestlers in the entire UFC, so he will be the one controlling where this fight takes place. I think Gregor is one of the few fighters who could get double digit takedowns in a fight and with a ceiling that high I can’t fade him even at his high price tag of 9.5k.

Underdog play of the week – Jodie Esquibel ($7,900)

I don’t like a lot of underdogs this week but one spot I think is safe for a high floor and possible win is Jodie Esquibel. I have not been impressed with what we have seen in her opponent since she joined the UFC. It looks like Jessica Aguilar is on her way out of the sport with how much she has faded in the previous years and I don’t see her getting a finish in this fight. For Jodie, even in a decision loss, I think she could rack up 30-40 points which isn’t bad if you hit on your other spots. However, I will go ahead and pick Jodie to win this fight outright and score near 10x her salary of 7.9k.

Fade of the week – Sam Alvey ($8,500)

Last time I wrote Alvey up as my fade of the week, he burned me hard. But, I am doing it again here. Alvey needs to get a finish for him to be a good DraftKings play because he does not wrestle and he does not strike at a high pace. If Alvey wins a decision here, it is likely that he only scores ~60 points and for 8.5k that is not enough for me. I will be full fading Alvey again this week and using that salary to spend up for other favorites with higher output.

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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