Free UFC on FOX 8 Picks: Demetrious Johnson (-500) vs. John Moraga (+400)

John-Moraga UFC on FOX 8 KeyArena, Seattle, Washington Saturday, July 27, 2013 UFC Flyweight Championship Bout: Demetrious Johnson (-500) vs. John Moraga (+400) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC on FOX 8 is a five-round fight for the UFC flyweight championship between current titleholder Demetrious Johnson and top contender John Moraga. The champion Johnson is a big -500 favorite (bet $500 to win $100), while Moraga is a +400 underdog (bet $100 to win $400) at Several Bookmakers. Johnson (17-2-1) is the UFC flyweight champion and he won the title against Joseph Benavidez at UFC 152. Since then, the 26-year-old has defended his belt against John Dodson, and this will be his second title defense and it’s a fight where most expect him to cruise. Johnson is a good wrestler with big takedowns. He’s extremely fast, and he showed in his last fight against Dodson that he has evolved his standup game as he showed an excellent muay Thai clinch. But the problem with Johnson is that he isn’t a finisher, and his fights are often times tight decisions that end up in the hands of the judges. Johnson has been lucky so far, but his wins over Miguel Torres and his draw against Ian McCall were questionable and if he leaves this fight with Moraga in the hands of the judges as well, you never know what can happen. Moraga (13-1) earned his shot at the title with stoppage wins over Chris Cariaso and Ulysses Gomez. The 29-year-old is a well-rounded fighter with good wresting, strong power (for a 125er) and submission skills, and unlike Johnson he’s a finisher. Although many are unfamiliar with Moraga because his previous UFC fights were on Facebook, I believe he is very deserving of this crack at the belt and I think he has a good chance to get the upset victory. Although everyone is counting him out, I believe Moraga has more ways to win the fight than Johnson does and if he can stop the takedowns and hurt Johnson throughout the fight with strikes, the judges may end up siding with him when it comes time to make their decision. Fight Prediction: This is going to be a competitive fight between two high-level and well-rounded flyweights and ultimately it may come down to the judges. I think that these two fighters match up pretty evenly with one another, although I would give Moraga the power edge and Johnson the speed edge. Look for a tight match-up with closely-judged rounds that will just depend on how the judges view the bout as I expect both men to display complete mixed martial arts attacks. And, at the odds, I’m willing to bet it’s Moraga to get the nod. Adam’s Pick: Moraga via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: At +400, how do you not take a shot at the underdog? Flyweight fights in the UFC have historically been very competitive and often go to decisions and it just depends on what the judges see that night, so I’m willing to roll the dice at +400 on the dog here. I believe Moraga has more ways to win the fight and although I lean a decision, it wouldn’t surprise me if he did win by knockout either. So the +400 moneyline offers the best protection if Moraga is your guy in this fight, although I have to admit the props on Moraga by decision (+1550) is tempting to throw a flier on.

Written by Adam Martin.

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