If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This week we have a Sunday morning card we can wake up to and have an early DFS sweat. DraftKings lowered all their contests this week since it isn’t a big card, but there is still money to be won and $15k at the top of the $8 tourney. Personally, I am going to focus more on cash games this week because the GPPs don’t have large prize pools but I will still take a few shots at that $15k. If I can’t win it then hopefully somebody that reads this article will. Here are a few plays I like this Sunday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Darren Till ($7,800)
Usually, I like to stack the main event in my cash games and I may even do that again here in this spot. However, if I only use 1 fighter from the main event in my cash games this week it will be Till. With the current betting odds being basically a pick’em, I have to take advantage of that value on paper and save the money with a cheap $7.8k Till. I think this will be a fun fight with Till being the one to push the pace. Whether Till can get a finish or not won’t matter here in cash games as long as he can get a win. With 5 rounds to work with Till should at least hit 10x his $7.8k price tag, so he is where I am starting my cash games this week. He will also be one of the most popular cash plays of the week so even in a loss it shouldn’t kill solo Till lineups because the majority of people in your cash games will have him as well.
GPP play of the week – Nordine Taleb ($9,100)
The reason I like Taleb as my GPP play of the week is because I would rather have him over the two guys priced right above him (Allen & Theodorou) and I could see him getting a 1st round TKO/KO for a lot of points. At $9.1k, I think we can get at least 10x value here if it does end in a finish like I see it happening. The one thing I am worried about is that we have not seen his opponent fight in almost 4 years so we don’t really know what we are getting with him. When he did fight 4 years ago I was not impressed by his UFC fights and I don’t see that break helping him out too much. If Taleb can keep this fight standing he should be able to win easily and I think he gets over 100 points here against Silva.
Underdog play of the week – Gina Mazany ($7,700)
This one was easy because Mazany is now the favorite on the betting odds but the good thing about DraftKings is the salaries don’t change along with the odds, so we get a nice discount on her in this spot. Mazany will be a popular play because of the line movement but I don’t think it is bad chalk because I usually do just lean with the odds when I see value like that on paper. If Mazany is going to win this fight it will be because she was able to get takedowns and likely grind out a decision. In DraftKings, we love takedowns so in this spot we get odds value and takedown value so I can’t fade her because of a high ownership.
Fade of the week – Elias Theodorou ($9,400)
This fight is likely a fade for me in general but since Elias is the $9.4k favorite he is the one that is the least likely to make any of my lineups. I do think Elias gets the job done as a -410 favorite but at 9.4k I want at least 94 points from him and I don’t think that is very likely here. I see this fight going to decision and if that is the case it will be hard for him to rack up enough points to make his salary worth it. I would rather use fighters below Elias and just save money to move up elsewhere.