UFC Fight Night 128 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC Fight Night 128 goes down Saturday, April 21 at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The offshore sportsbooks opened the complete odds for the entire card and here they are:

UFC Fight Night 128 Opening Odds

Edson Barboza -135
Kevin Lee -105

Frankie Edgar -230
Cub Swanson +170

Justin Willis -215
Chase Sherman +165

Thiago Santos -185
David Branch +145

Brett Johns -150
Aljamain Sterling +110

Dan Hooker -270
Jim Miller +190

Ryan LaFlare -195
Alex Garcia +155

Magomed Bibulatov -300
Ulka Sasaki +220

Siyar Bahadurzada -180
Luan Chagas +140

Patrick Cummins -175
Corey Anderson +145

Aspen Ladd -265
Leslie Smith +185

Ricky Simon -245
Merab Dvalishvili +175

Tony Martin -175
Keita Nakamura +135

Here are my initial reactions to the UFC Fight Night 128 opening odds:

– I agreed with the oddsmakers setting Barboza as the favorite over Lee, but this line has been out for a few months now and Lee is the favorite now as the line has flipped. I don’t agree with it. I think Barboza is significantly better in the striking department and I think he will be able to stop Lee’s takedowns and keep it on the feet. Clearly bettors are fading Barboza’s takedown defense following his devastating loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov but I don’t think you should sleep on his wrestling. Consdering he’s the dog I just think there’s very good value here in Barboza in what should be a stylistically-favorable matchup for him.

– The co-main event between Edgar and Swanson should drag some wagers, though I believe this is a stay-away-from fight. The reason being Edgar should win based on what he did to Swanson in the pair’s first fight, but based on the fact he was just brutally knocked out by Brian Ortega a month ago I wouldn’t be rushing to the books to lay the juice on Edgar here.

– I think Willis opened up too low against Sherman, and I’m not surprised that the early action has come in on the favorite Willis. He has a significant wrestling advantage in this fight and although Sherman likely has the striking edge I’m not really sure what to think of his chin. I just feel like this spread should be a lot wider and I favor Willis to win this fight much more than the odds indicate.

– Johns is one of my favorite plays on the card. I think Sterling is a decent fighter, but also feel like he’s already peaked. Johns, though, still has a ton of room for growth in my opinion which is impressive given that he’s an undefeated fighter who has looked amazing in the UFC so far. I think Johns should be a bigger favorite here, and would be looking to pounce at him at a number like the opener.

– For a dog pick, I am leaning towards Anderson over Cummins. Though Cummins has the wrestling advantage, I still think Anderson should be able to stop a lot of the takedowns and on the feet he has a significant advantage in both power and speed. Not surprisingly, bettors took Anderson at this early plus number (this line came out a while ago) but I still think there’s value here as I believe he should be favored in this matchup.

Written by Adam Martin.

Leave a Reply

Updated Fighter Grades: Post-UFC on Fox 29

MMA Odds and Ends for Wednesday: Lentz vs. Santos, Guida vs. Green Booked