UFC on FOX 29 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC on FOX 29 takes place Saturday, April 14 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona. The offshore books recently released the full betting odds for the entire card, and here they are.

UFC on FOX 29 Opening Odds

Dustin Poirier -130
Justin Gaethje -110

Alex Oliveira -160
Carlos Condit +120

Israel Adesanya -260
Marvin Vettori +180

Michelle Waterson -120
Cortney Casey -120

Antonio Carlos Junior -245
Tim Boetsch +175

Muslim Salikhov -260
Ricky Rainey +180

Wilson Reis -165
John Moraga +125

Brad Tavares -215
Krzysztof Jotko +170

Gilbert Burns -515
Dan Moret +325

Lauren Mueller -190
Shana Dobson +150

Yushin Okami -120
Dhiego Lima -120

Arjan Bhullar -150
Adam Wieczorek +110

Alejandro Perez -150
Matthew Lopez +110

Luke Sanders -310
Patrick Williams +230

And my initial reactions to the UFC on FOX 29 opening odds…

– The main event is a tough one to call. Both Poirier and Gaethje are extremely effective offensive fighters but both men have porous defense and are prone to taking damage in their fights. The fact Gaethje was just brutally knocked out by Eddie Alvarez a few months ago concerns me. Having said that, I still feel like he should be the favorite in this fight, even despite Poirier coming off of a TKO win over Anthony Pettis. I just feel like Gaethje is the more powerful striker and more durable in this kind of matchup. We’ll see how the line moves this week, but right now Gaethje is one of my dog leans on the card.

– Another dog I have my eye on is Jotko. I feel like the line was opened way too high in Tavares’ favor in what I view as a very competitive fight. I’m not surprised at all that the early action is coming in on Jotko, driving down the line in the process. I’d say there’s value on Jotko as a dog here even despite the fact he’s coming off of two-straight losses and Tavares is on a three-fight win streak. I just feel like this is a fight destined for a split decision and I’d favor the dog value in that situation, although if the line does flip I would pass on it.

– For chalk, Adesanya should be able to get by Vettori. I think Vettori is a solid fighter but I don’t think he has the wrestling skills needed to upset Adesanya, who is clearly the superior striker in this bout. The same goes for Burns over Moret, who took his fight on extremely short notice. I feel like Burns is going to be able to get him on the ground and submit him. As far as chalk goes, both guys should win comfortably.

– One dog that has a chance is Boetsch. I just don’t trust Junior’s chin or his cardio and if Boetsch is able to take the fight into deep waters he has a chance to pull off the upset. I don’t know how you could bet against Boetsch considering how many times he’s scored an upset against a flawed fighter. I actually think there are quite a few dogs on this card who could bark, and would be hesitant to lay big juice on these guys.

Written by Adam Martin.

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