This weekend we have a main event with Cris Cyborg being a -1400 favorite over Yana Kunitskaya. I usually do like having a play on the main event for most UFC fight cards but this one is an easy pass with odds like that. My interest in this card is in the co-main event between Frankie Edgar and Brian Ortega. I think this is a great fight to save the card after Max Holloway was forced to pull out due to an injury. Not only am I excited to watch this fight but I think there is some decent value in the betting line and this is where my only bet of the night will be at.
On Edgar’s side, I do think it was a pretty ballsy move for him to take this fight against a talented submission artist like Ortega when he could have just waited for Holloway to get healthy again and get his title shot. So, he has a ton to lose in this fight but will for sure get the next title shot if he gets the win. On Ortega’s side, I don’t think he really has much to lose here minus his undefeated record. I’m sure the UFC is giving him a bonus for saving the card and if he beats Edgar then he would jump above him in the rankings and will be next in line for a title shot. If Ortega loses to Edgar, then he will likely learn from it and come back better and losing to a guy like Edgar isn’t a bad look on someone’s record.
In this matchup, I think Ortega’s only real shot at a win is to get a submission. However, he will likely need Edgar to take him down or get a submission with him standing because he isn’t very effective at getting takedowns of his own with only a 14.29% takedown accuracy. I think Edgar will be smart enough to keep this fight standing and he will have a huge edge in the striking. With the pace Edgar will set and the movements he will be utilizing on the feet I think it will be too much for Ortega and I don’t see him getting ahold of him for the submission to happen. I think Edgar wins this fight with a unanimous decision win with 30-27 on all scorecards. I personally think Edgar should be over a -200 favorite and would have lined it closer to -250 myself. I think there is plenty of value in the current line at -165 and I may add another play if it keeps getting lower. I jumped on the line too early myself so I will wait closer to fight time to see how low it gets before I add on but I have 3.8u at -190 and 1.7u at -170 to win 3u on the night. This is my biggest bet of the year so far but I am pretty confident we will see Edgar with his hand raised at the end of the night.
Only play of the night = 5.5u on Frankie Edgar to win 3u. (Current line -165)