UFC on Fox 28 Opening Odds Reactions

UFC on Fox 28 takes place this Saturday night (Feb. 24, 2018) from the Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. The event is headlined by a featherweight contest between Jeremy Stephens and Josh Emmett. Here are the opening odds from the offshore sportsbooks:

UFC on FOX 28 Opening Odds:

Jeremy Stephens -130
Josh Emmett -110

Jessica Andrade -290
Tecia Torres +210

Ovince Saint-Preux -135
Ilir Latifi -105

Mike Perry -230
Max Griffin +170

Renan Barao -160
Brian Kelleher +120

Sara McMann -195
Marion Reneau +160

Maryna Moroz -140
Angela Hill +100

Alan Jouban -215
Ben Saunders +165

Marcin Prachnio -280
Sam Alvey +200

Rani Yahya -285
Russell Doane +205

Alex Perez -160
Eric Shelton +120

Manny Bermudez -245
Albert Morales +175

My initial reactions to the UFC on FOX 28 opening odds are as follows:

  • The main event is a tough one to call. Jeremy Stephens and Josh Emmett match up very well with one another and on paper are similar fighters. I agree Stephens should be a slight favorite because he’s the more proven fighter, but after Emmett brutally finished Ricardo Lamas, it’s hard to go against him. Pass.
  • I was shocked when I saw how big of a favorite Jessica Andrade was to Tecia Torres. I know Andrade looked incredible against Claudia Gadelha, but Torres has looked exceptional in the UFC herself. To me, there’s value on Torres at this big plus number, and I’d look to pounce if the number balloons even further.
  • Renan Barao used to be the bantamweight champ, but he’s been on a nasty losing skid ever since running into TJ Dillashaw a few years ago and I have no idea how anyone could trust him in this spot. If anything, his opponent Brian Kelleher deserves a look as the underdog, considering how impressive he’s looked in two of his three UFC bouts.
  • There’s value here on Angela Hill as the opening dog against Maryna Moroz. I think it’s a competitive matchup but I believe Hill is the more powerful striker and I like her confidence. I would have opened Hill as the favorite and I’m not surprised the public has bet her number up since the opener.
  • I’m eyeing Sam Alvey as a dog against Marcin Prachnio as well. Yes the Pole is one a nice win streak, but he’s fought a bunch of nobodies. Alvey has only fought good fighters in the UFC and has a winning record in the Octagon. Alvey has a good chin and tons of power and I could see him knocking Prachnio out. There’s value at this ballooned number, in my opinion.
  • I like Manny Bermudez against Albert Morales in the opener. Morales is a fun fighter to watch but he has shown in his UFC career that he has limited upside. Bermudez has been very impressive on the regional circuit and I think he has a really favorable matchup here in his UFC debut to come away with a big win.

Written by Adam Martin.

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