Main Card Plays for UFC Fight Night 125

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UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders
Date: February 3
Arena: Arena Guilherme Paraense
City: Belem, Brazil

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Belem, Brazil for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders. The 12 fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET and prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p., with the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.

Here are my plays…

Lightweight bout: Michel Prazeres (-150) vs. Desmond Green (+130)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Prazeres is going to be a step ahead of Green everywhere in this contest. If the fight hits the mat, I think it will be Prazeres taking it there. I see value in the Brazilian at his current offering price of -150, as I think he should be a -220 betting favorite here. Even if it is a close fight and/or Green edges it out, I think there is a good chance that Prazeres will still get a hometown call. If Green is unable to secure a finish or make this fight completely one-sided, I think he stands a slim chance at getting his hand raised.

Gabe’s Call: Prazeres by Unanimous Decision (30-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Prazeres 3u to win 2u

Middleweight bout: Thiago Santos (-270) vs. Anthony Smith (+230)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Everybody is counting Smith out of this fight. It’s hard to blame them, considering he was losing all of his recent fights until his opponents gassed. That is not likely to happen here, considering Santos has no cardio issues. Many feel this is a dangerous fight for Smith, and it very well could be, but I think it is also a dangerous fight for Santos. I think Smith is capable of ending this fight any minute, whether by T/KO or submission. I think Santos should be a slight betting favorite, so at the current odds, I think Smith is worth a play.

Gabe’s Call: Smith by T/KO (elbow, 1:31 round 3)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Smith (+230) 2u to win 4.6u


Written by Gabe Killian

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