Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 121

UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura
Date: November 18
Arena: Qudos Bank Arena
City: Sydney, Australia

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to Sydney, Australia for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura. The 13-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action at 6:30 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass, with the prelims continuing at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1 and the main card getting underway on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.

Here are my prop plays…

Elias Theodoreau (-290) vs. Dan Kelly (+260)

Theodoreau Inside the Distance (+353)

I think Theodoreau has just about a good of a chance at defeating Kelly via finish as he does by decision, which makes me value this betting line, considering he is -290 to win straight up and -124 to win by decision. The chances of him finishing Kelly on the feet are slim, but if he is able to secure a takedown, I think his chances of earning a finish will greatly increase once on the mat. A T/KO stoppage would be a likely outcome in that scenario, but I would not completely rule out a submission, either, especially if he is able to hurt Kelly with strikes.

Alex Volkanovski (-680) vs. Shane Young (+540)

Volkanovski -3.5 (-300)

Volkanovski Inside the Distance (-140)

I expect this to be a one-sided affair in favor of the massive betting favorite Volkanovski. I think he handily gets the better of Young in each round of this contest, likely securing a finish along the way. A finish would most likely be a ground and pound that forces the referee to step in and halt the action, but I think there is also a small chance that he earns a rear naked choke finish.

Ryan Benoit (-280) vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian (+255)

Benoit -3.5 (-145)

Benoit by Submission (+943)

I believe Benoit is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this matchup and I see him getting the better of Mokhtarian both on the feet and on the mat for likely the entirety of 15 minutes of action en route to a one-sided unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, potentially finishing him along the way. Benoit is capable of finishing this fight by T/KO, as well as submission, so I see great value in the Submission prop at +943, considering the T/KO prop is +210, the Decision prop is +164 and he is -280 straight-up on the moneyline. He has always has a solid ground game and I expect it to be on another level now that he is under the tutelage of Ricky Lundell.

Will Brooks (-470) vs. Nik Lentz (+415)

Brooks -3.5 (-195)

Brooks by T/KO (+405)

I see this as being a one-sided matchup in favor of the former Bellator lightweight champion Brooks. I see him getting the better of Brooks in every round of this contest for a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, potentially securing a T/KO stoppage along the way. While I think the chances of a decision victory are higher, especially considering how tough Lentz is to put away, I think the T/KO prop is worth the risk at the current price. It is also worth keeping in mind that all the damage Lentz has been taking has been adding up and Brooks is in dire need of victory here, so if he is a man possessed when he enters that Octagon in Sydney, there’s no telling what he could do to Lentz.

Nadia Kassem (-175) vs. Alex Chambers (+165)

Chambers by Submission (+390)

In short, I think this is the most likely outcome to this bout and I see value in the prop. Though Chambers may not be UFC-caliber, I think she is too much too soon for Kassem in her young pro career.

Written by Gabe Killian

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