Over/Under Totals for UFC Fight Night 120


UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis
Date: November 11
Arena: Ted Constant Convocation Center
City: Norfolk, VA

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to Norfolk, VA for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis. The stacked 13-fight card is set to kick off with prelims on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting going on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

Here are my plays…

Lightweight bout: Clay Guida (-120) vs. Joe Lauzon (+100)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I more or less agree with the current betting odds for this 155-pound contest, as I think Guida should be a -140 betting favorite heading in. Needless to say, I see no value in either fighter for a wager at the current odds. However, I do see value in the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -170, as I think that line should be -250. Regardless of who gets their hands raised in this matchup, I see things playing out for all three rounds more often than not.

Gabe’s Call: Guida by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-170)

Bantamweight bout: John Dodson (-115) vs. Marlon Moraes (-105)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Moraes should be a -150 betting favorite in this matchup, so I think he holds some betting value at the current price. He is coming off a split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao in his promotional debut, and this is somewhat of a similar stylistic matchup for him, in my opinion, as I see a lackluster three rounds where both 135-pounders attempt to outpoint each other, giving one another a little too much respect. Despite coming out on the losing end of the split decision call against Assuncao, I personally scored that fight for Moraes, and I favor him to edge this one out, as well, which is why I can’t fault anybody for playing him at the current price. That said, I think the real value play here, despite not being nearly as good of a line, is the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -220, as I think that line should be between -350 and -400. Despite who gets his hand raised here, I think the victory comes on the judges’ scorecards much more often than not. They are both finishers, but they are also both tough to put away, and I think this is a stylistic matchup that has a very slim chance of producing a finish.

Gabe’s Call: Moraes by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-29)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-220)

Written by Gabe Killian

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