UFC Fight Night 119: Machida vs. Brunson
Date: October 28
Arena: Ibiriapuera Gymnasium
City: Sau Paulo, Brazil
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Sao Paulo, Brazil. The 12-fight card gets going with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 2 at 8 p.m. and the main card will kick off on FOX Sports 1 at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Rob Font (-140) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+130)
Munhoz +3.5 (-170) I see great value in this betting prop, considering I favor Munhoz to win this bout straight up and think he should be a -220 betting favorite on the moneyline.
John Lineker (-500) vs. Marlon Vera (+435)
Vera +3.5 (+215)
While I favor Lineker to get his hand raised in this 125-pound contest, I don’t quite agree with his current offering price of -500, as I think the matchup is a lot closer than that suggests. At the current odds, I think the value is with the underdog Vera at +435, because I think he should be a +200 underdog in this bout. Lineker will have the edge in boxing and power, while Vera will hold the advantages in grappling and physical size. Being the larger fighter of the two, I could see Vera finding success with his grappling, and potentially submitting Lineker. Considering I think he should be +200 straight up on the moneyline, I think the Vera +3.5 prop holds a good amount of value at +215.
Vicente Luque (-120) vs. Niko Price (+110)
Price in Round Three (+1100)
If Luque fails to put Price away early in this matchup, I think there is a good chance Price will finish him in the third round. At +1100, I say it is worth a shot.
Antonio Carlos Junior (-450) vs. Jack Marshman (+400)
ACJ by Decision (+230)
To put it simply, I think this is the most likely outcome to this 185-pound contest and see value in the +230 betting line, considering ACJ is -450 straight on the moneyline.
Marcelo Golm (-220) vs. Christian Colombo (+200)
Colombo by Submission (+1245)
Colombo Inside the Distance (+325)
Contrary to popular opinion, I favor Colombo to win this bout. I think Golm is the better fighter of the two, but I think Colombo’s toughness and superior cardio will make the difference. Golm will come out strong but I like Colombo’s chances of surviving the early onslaught and eventually finishing Golm after the Brazilian runs out of gas. I think this fight will come down to whether Golm can put Colombo away early or not, and I am betting against it.