UFC Fight Night 119: Machida vs. Brunson
Date: October 28
Arena: Ibiriapuera Gymnasium
City: Sau Paulo, Brazil
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Sao Paulo, Brazil. The 12 fight card gets going with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 2 at 8 p.m. and the main card will kick off on FOX Sports 1 at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my plays…
Middleweight bout: Derek Brunson (-145) vs. Lyoto Machida (+135)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Machida returns from an extended two-year drug suspension layoff to take on Brunson in an effort to snap a two-fight losing skid and break back into the win column in the UFC’s 185 pound division. He will be looking to stop Brunson’s takedown attempts and keep this fight standing, where he will have the striking advantage. I do not quite agree with the current betting odds, as I think Machida should be slightly favored in this contest, which means I think he holds value at his current offering underdog price of +135. That said, I prefer the Total of Under 2.5 rounds here at -147, despite the return not being nearly as good. The reason for that is because while I favor Machida to finish Brunson, I think Brunson is capable of ending this fight, as well. I see Brunson being cautious until eventually getting frustrated and making a mistake, which Machida will capitalize on and catch him.
Gabe’s Call: Machida by T/KO (punches, 0:38 round 2)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (-147)
Middleweight bout: Antonio Carlos Junior (-450) vs. Jack Marshman (+400)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with ACJ being the betting favorite in this bout, however I don’t agree with his current offering price of -450. I think he should be a 3-to-1 betting favorite in this 185 pound matchup, so at the current odds, I see this fight as a dog or pass situation, and ultimately I am going to have to pass on the dog Marshman. Instead, I am opting to take the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -142, as I favor ACJ to win this fight by either unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards or late finish. I do see this as being his fight to lose, and I expect him to come away with a solid victory in front of his fellow Brazilians in Brazil. The way I could see him losing is how he lost against Dan Kelly, where he gassed after dominated early. He has gotten his cardio into check following that bout, so I don’t expect it to be a concern in this contest.
Gabe’s Call: ACJ by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-142)