UFC Fight Night 119: Machida vs. Brunson
Date: October 28
Arena: Ibiriapuera Gymnasium
City: Sau Paulo, Brazil
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Sao Paulo, Brazil. The 12 fight card gets going with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 2 at 8 p.m. and the main card will kick off on FOX Sports 1 at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my live dogs:
Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-125) vs. Demian Maia (+105)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Maia should be a -160 betting favorite heading into this 170-pound matchup, so I see value in him at his current offering underdog price of +105. I see him having more success with Covington than he did with Masvidal, despite Covington being the bigger fighter of the two. I don’t see Covington having as much success as Masvidal did, and I’m not sure if his submission defense will be quite as good, either. I think there is a decent chance that Maia could earn another submission finish here. If not, I do favor him to win at least two out of three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Gabe’s Call: Maia by Submission (neck crank, 2:05 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Maia (+155)
Flyweight bout: John Lineker (-550) vs. Marlon Vera (+425)
Gabe’s Thoughts: While I favor Lineker to get his hand raised in this 125-pound contest, I don’t quite agree with his current offering price of -550, as I think the matchup is a lot closer than that suggests. At the current odds, I think the value is with the underdog Vera at +425, because I think he should be a +200 underdog in this bout. Lineker will have the edge in boxing and power, while Vera will hold the advantages in grappling and physical size. Being the larger fighter of the two, I could see Vera finding success with his grappling, and potentially submitting Lineker.
Gabe’s Call: Lineker by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Vera (+426)