Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 110 as Australian Olympic Judoka Dan Kelly takes on American Derek Brunson.
Derek Brunson (Record: 16-5, -265 Favorite, Power Ranking: B)
The Jackson’s MMA fighter was on the best run of his career, winning five fights in a row, including four straight by knockout, prior to a TKO loss to Robert Whittaker. He’s now lost two straight fights after dropping a controversial decision to Anderson Silva. He is looking to get back in the win column at Fight Night 110.
Brunson is certainly one of the up and coming middleweights in the UFC. At 6-foot-1 and with a 77-inch reach, he’s one of the best athletes in the division. For Brunson, everything starts with his wrestling. At the University of North Carolina-Pembroke, Brunson was a three-time Division II All-American. That ability in collegiate wrestling has translated over to MMA, as he’s secured a whopping 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has been successful on 32 percent of his takedown attempts. That includes three takedowns on Olympic silver medalist Yoel Romero. Defensively, he has never been taken down by an opponent inside the Octagon. In short, Brunson has dominated the grappling in his fights. In order to beat Brunson, his opponent must beat him on the feet. Brunson has made significant strides over the last few years to improve his striking. Boxing has become a major weapon for him, and he has certainly built confidence knocking out some quality opposition in the last couple of years. With that said, if there’s an area where Brunson is vulnerable, it is in his defensive striking. He has been knocked out in three of his five career losses and needs to protect his chin better. He was reckless in his fight against Whittaker, but in his next bout he was much more calculated versus Anderson Silva. For Brunson to have success, he needs to fight similar to the way he did against Silva.
Dan Kelly (Record: 13-1, +225 Underdog, Power Ranking: C)
The Australian Kelly is one of just a few athletes in the UFC to compete in the Olympics. In fact, he’s competed in the Olympics four times in judo. He’s the only Aussie to have ever accomplished that feat. Kelly made the move to MMA after the 2012 Olympics, compiling victories in in his home country prior to making the jump to the UFC. In the organization, he has a 6-1 record with his only defeat to “Smilin” Sam Alvey. Kelly had perhaps his best performance in his last fight, out-striking former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans to win a decision.
Kelly has been on one of the best runs in the middleweight division, winning his last four fights. What has stood out most recently is his jab. For a fighter who came to MMA from a grappling background, he’s shown to have decent boxing technique, and he’s able to throw his jab with accuracy. Surprisingly, he doesn’t attempt to utilize his judo background as much as one would think, securing 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes. He seems satisfied to engage in 15-minute stand-up battles. While his mobility is rather limited, he fights at a fairly constant pace for all 15 minutes. This allows him to do better in his fights as his opponents fatigue. Kelly does not have one-punch knockout power either, and for the most part, he looks to out-point and/or out-land his opponents to earn a decision win.
Matchup
A particularly big fight for Kelly, as he has made his way up the UFC middleweight rankings at UFC Fight Night 110. The Australian judoka has been on a tremendous run of late, beating the likes of Antonio Carlos Jr. and Rashad Evans to enter the middleweight rankings at No. 15. In the co-main event, he’ll square off with the eighth-ranked Brunson. Kelly has been content to box and secure timely takedowns against recent opponents. That’s going to be difficult for him to do in this bout, as Brunson has yet to be taken down in the UFC. Furthermore, Brunson has a major reach advantage in this bout of seven inches. I expect Brunson’s length to be a major differentiator in this bout, as he’ll look to strike from range against Kelly. The only way I see Kelly having success in this bout is he can make up the distance and force Brunson into a brawl. Brunson is going to be cautious in this fight and will not put himself in danger. That will make it really tough for Kelly to lure Brunson into the type of fight he needs to have success. Brunson has the power to finish Kelly, but it’s possible this goes the full 15 minutes. Either way, Brunson is longer, more athletic, and as capable a MMA grappler as Kelly is. Kelly has done really well in the UFC, winning many times as an underdog, but a matchup with Brunson is a major step up in competition and one I don’t see him passing. Brunson is a solid parlay piece for this fight card. I’d recommend avoiding props for this fight, as I see a knockout or decision both as real possibilities.
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