Free UFC 161 Picks: Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Stipe Miocic (+220)

Roy NelsonUFC 161 MTS Centre, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada Saturday, June 15, 2013 Light heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Stipe Miocic (+220) Fight Breakdown: The co-main event of UFC 161 is a three-round heavyweight bout between Roy Nelson and Stipe Miocic. Nelson is currently a -260 betting favorite (bet $260 to win $100) while Miocic is a +220 underdog (bet $100 to win $220) at Several Bookmakers. Nelson (19-7) is currently riding a three-fight win streak with victories over Cheick Kongo, Matt Mitrione and Dave Herman — all by KO. The 36-year-old is one of the hardest hitting heavyweight fighters in the business and also has one of the best chins in the history of the sport as we’ve seen this man take punishment in fight after fight without getting knocked out, save for a somewhat flukish KO from Andrei Arlovski back in Elite XC (watch that fight and you tell me what you think). Although Nelson is never going to win the UFC heavyweight title because of his striking defence issues and poor cardio, he still beats most of the middle-of-the-pack guys in the UFC and Miocic is the definition of that. Miocic (9-1) is a solid heavyweight and was making a run up the ladder before he was shockingly knocked out by Stefan Struve at UFC on FUEL TV 5. Although I thought Miocic would lose that fight, I didn’t think he would get finished on the feet and it’s really made me doubt him doubt him going forward as he showed bad cardio and a bad chin in that fight. Although the the 30-year-old is a good boxer and good wrestler with sound MMA fundamentals and a very long reach for his weight class, I just don’t see how he beats Nelson here and I don’t think he should have accepted this fight on short notice. This is a bad fight for Miocic, and I don’t think he wins. Fight Prediction: I just don’t see what Miocic has to offer Nelson. Sure, he has solid boxing and wrestling, but he also has a questionable chin and bad cardio and I just don’t see a clear path to victory for him to beat Nelson. “Big Country,” on the other hand, has a very clear path to victory, and that’s with his vicious knockout power. I see Nelson knocking out Miocic in devastating fashion, and he’ll probably do it in the first round. Adam’s Pick: Nelson via KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I can’t Nelson losing this fight. It’s the last bout of his UFC deal and considering the amount of power he possesses and Miocic’s questionable chin, I really do believe that Nelson is going to land that patented overhand right of his and knock Miocic out, probably in the first round. At -260, Nelson is definitely good parlay fodder and a parlay with him and Alexis Davis together is probably worth a play.

Written by Adam Martin.

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