Over the last two days, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas released new odds for the remaining two main card fights for this weekend’s UFC 161 card, but because of the recent UFC on FUEL TV 10 event it seems like these odds have kind of been looked over by the general betting public.
Here are the current odds for the two latest released UFC 161 lines at 5Dimes Sportsbook:
Ryan Jimmo (-250) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+210)
Alexis Davis (-380) vs. Rosi Sexton (+315)
And here are my thoughts on these two lines:
- For the Jimmo vs. Pokrajac fight, there’s no doubt that Jimmo deserves to be the favorite, but I think the public has taken the fight to an unbettable number. To me, Jimmo deserves to be a 2-to-1 favorite because he is the better overall fighter and will have the homefield edge fighting in front of his native Canadian fans, but I don’t think he should be a -250 favorite, so I will recommend a pass on him unless the line dips down to around -200. On the other hand, though, I have a hard time recommending a bet on Pokrajac because he’s such a flawed fighter with poor striking defence and bad fight IQ but he definitely has some power behind his punches and at +210 I have to admit there’s a bit of value on him. But unless he gets to +250, I’d have to recommend a pass as well, making this fight a no bet as far as I’m concerned.
- As for the Davis vs. Sexton fight, I honestly don’t see how Sexton wins this fight. Yes, she’s a solid grappler and is a good, underrated fighter, but in the flyweight division not in the bantamweight division. Davis is a bigger woman and has just as much if not more experience and an equal ground game making her one of my strongest leans on the card. Although -380 is quite a bit of juice to eat, I actually believe that Davis should be priced closed to the -700 range and therefore even at -380 she’s worth a bet. I’d be hesitant to lay all that juice straight but Davis is definitely a parlay key and I recommend a parlay with her and Jon Fitch (who fights at WSOF 3) depending of course on the line for Fitch (I expect it to be around -300).
As for the rest of the lines that have been released for the card, here are the current odds on them followed by some quick thoughts:
Rashad Evans (-125) vs. Dan Henderson (+105)
Roy Nelson (-250) vs. Stipe Miocic (+210)
Pat Barry (-120) vs. Shawn Jordan (+100)
Tyron Woodley (-175) vs. Jake Shields (+155)
- The main event of the evening is the definition of a pass for me. It’s a supremely-close fight and I don’t see an edge as far as a bet goes so I’m just going to pass and watch as a fan.
- The co-main event of the evening should be entertaining but I expect Nelson to smoke Miocic with punches. At -250, Nelson is definitely someone to consider parlaying.
- Barry vs. Jordan should be a fun heavyweight fight but I really like Barry in this spot and at -120, I think he’s worth a bet.
- Woodley vs. Shields is a close fight and although I favor Woodley, I can see Shields getting the upset and I don’t know if I’m going to bet it.
UFC 161 should be a great card and expect more lines to be released in the next day or so for all of the preliminary fights.